Understanding and Assessing Climate Change: Implications for Nebraska


WELL, WELCOME THIS AFTERNOON, MY NAME IS RONNIE GREEN AND I HAVE THE PLEASURE OF SERVING HERE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA – LINCOLN AS THE VICE CHANCELLOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF AG AND NATURAL RESOURCES AND AS VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA FOR AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES WELCOME TO OUR INAUGURAL LECTURE FOR THIS ACADEMIC YEAR OF THE HEUERMANN LECTURES WE STARTED THE HEUERMANN LECTURES JUST THREE YEARS AGO. THIS IS OUR FOURTH SEASON THAT WE ARE ENTERING UPON THIS YEAR WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE LECTURES ARE ON GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY, NATURAL RESOURCE SECURITY, RURAL LANDSCAPE SECURITY AROUND THE WORLD. AND WE WERE ABLE TO DO THAT THROUGH THE GENEROSITY OF A LONG STANDING COUPLE WHO HAVE HAD HUGE IMPACT FOR MANY, MANY YEARS ON NEBRASKA AGRICULTURE, CERTAINLY, AND
THE PRODUCTS THEY HAVE PRODUCED HAVE GONE FAR BEYOND NEBRASKA AND WE’RE VERY PLEASED THAT THEY’RE HERE WITH US TODAY. I THINK MR. HEUERMANN, KIETH HEUERMANN, HAS ONLY MISSED ONE LECTURE IF I REMEMBER CORRECTLY, IN HIS FOUR YEARS AND HE HAS NORMA, HIS WIFE, WITH HIM HERE TODAY. THEY’RE FROM PHILIPS, NEBRASKA ABOUT AN HOUR AND A HALF WEST OF US HERE IN LINCOLN. PLEASE JOIN ME IN THANKING KEITH AND NORMA HEUERMANN.NOW TODAY WE’RE IN FOR A REAL TREAT IN OUR KICK OFF OF THE LECTURE SERIES. IN THAT IT IS ALSO IN PARALLEL WITH THE RELEASE OF A REPORT THAT WE HAVE BEEN WORKING ON IN THE INSTITUTE OF AG AND NATURAL RESOURCES FOR THE BEST PART OF THE LAST YEAR. YOU WILL PERHAPS HAVE SEEN SOME OF THE PUBLICITY AROUND THIS. IT WAS IN THE PAPERS HERE LOCALLY THE LAST FEW DAYS. WHERE WE ARE TALKING TODAY ABOUT UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE, UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACTS THAT MAY COME FROM CLIMATE CHANGE ON NEBRASKA. AND ON HOW THAT MIGHT FACTOR IN TO OUR THINKING HERE IN THIS STATE AND ON THE RESOURCES BASE THAT WE ARE BLESSED TO HAVE IN THIS STATE DUE TO THESE CHANGES THAT ARE PROJECTED OUT IN THE FUTURE AHEAD OF US. NOW, OUR FORMAT TODAY FOR THE LECTURE… WE’RE HERE ON NEBRASKA INNOVATION CAMPUS IN THE CONFERENCE CENTER FACILITY THAT IS NEW AS YOU CAN SEE, THOSE OF YOU THAT ARE HERE. THIS IS IT’S FIRST YEAR OF OPERATION. AND WE EXPECTED THAT THIS WILL BE A GREAT VENUE FOR THIS LECTURE. WE WILL ACTUALLY BE HAVING A COUPLE OF OUR LECTURES HERE THIS YEAR IN THIS VENUE. SO WE’RE JOINED BY ABOUT FOUR HUNDRED PEOPLE HERE IN THE AUDITORIUM LIVE THEN I KNOW THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE TAPPED IN TO THE LECTURE FROM VARIOUS GROUPS AROUND THE STATE OF NEBRASKA, I KNOW THERE IS A UNO GROUP, CHADRON STATE GROUP, CREIGHTON GROUP ALL WHO ARE EITHER TAPPED IN NOW OR WILL BE TONIGHT TO VIEW WHAT OUR LECTURERS WILL TELL HERE IN THE NEXT HOUR AN A HALF. OUR VENUE OR OUR PLATFORM IN OUR VENUE WILL BE FORTY-FIVE MINUTES INITIALLY OF A SUMMARY OF THE REPORT. THAT WILL BE DELIVERED BY DR. DON WILHITE WHO HAS LEAD THE STUDY WITH I THINK ABOUT EIGHTEEN OF OUR FACULTY ACROSS THE UNIVERSITY NOT ALL IN THE INSTITUTE OF AG AND NATURAL RESOURCES AS YOU WILL SEE. OUR THREE PANELISTS TODAY ARE ALSO FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF EARTH AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES IN THE COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES HERE ON CAMPUS. FOLLOWING DR. WILHITE’S PRESENTATION WE WILL HAVE A PANEL DISCUSSION WHERE DON WILL BE JOINED BY CLINT ROWE, BOB OGLESBY, AND DEB BATHKE ALL CO-AUTHORS OF THE REPORT TO ALLOW YOU A CHANCE TO DIALOGUE WITH THEM IN QUESTIONS YOU MAY HAVE ABOUT WHAT THE REPORT SAYS. YOU WILL SEE ON THE DESKS IN FRONT OF YOU, THERE ARE NOTE CARDS THAT HAVE BEEN DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE AUDITORIUM SO IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO ADDRESS TO THE PANEL WE ASK YOU TO PUT THAT ON THE CARD SEND THEM TOWARDS THE END OF YOUR ROW IF YOU WILL, AND THEY WILL BE COLLECTED DURING THE LECTURES SO WE CAN BEGIN WITH THAT PANEL DIALOGUE IN THE SECOND FOURTY-FIVE MINUTES. EVERYBODY ON BOARD? SO I WILL NOW WELCOME DR. DON WILHITE TO THE PODIUM. DON HAS BEEN AN INTERNATIONAL LEADER FOR MANY YEARS. HE’S AN APPLIED CLIMATE SCIENTIST HE’S A MEMBER OF THE FACULTY OF OUR SCHOOL NATURAL RESOURCES IN I.A.N.R. AND HE’S LOOKED AT GLOBALLY AS A LEADER PARTICULARLY IN THE AREA OF PREDICTION OF DROUGHT AND THE IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS OF DROUGHT AND MITIGATION OF DROUGHT. YOU WILL RECOGNIZE THAT WE HOUSE HERE THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA – LINCOLN. WE ARE VERY PROUD OF THAT CENTER THE WORK THAT IS DOES FOR US NATIONALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY. AND DR. WILHITE, I FOLLOW HIS TRAVEL SCHEDULE CLOSELY HE’S ALL OVER THE WORLD ALL THE TIME. WORKING WITH GROUPS ALL THE WAY UP THE CHAIN IN HELPING US TO UNDERSTAND THE ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE’S IMPACTS ON DROUGHT. SO PLEASE JOIN ME IN WELCOMING DR. DON WILHITE FOR THE INITIAL PART OF THE LECTURE.THANK YOU. SO THEY TELL ME, WELL IT’S OBVIOUSLY LIVE. SO WELCOME. I’M VERY PLEASED THAT YOU COULD ALL COME TO THIS LECTURE THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST OF ALL, I MUST SAY THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I’VE SPOKEN IN THIS AUDITORIUM AND IT FEELS SOMEWHAT LIKE A COLISEUM IN ANCIENT ROME SO MY FIRST QUESTION TO RONNIE GREEN IS AT WHAT POINT ARE YOU GOING TO RELEASE THE LIONS? SO, NO, I’M PLEASED TO HAVE YOU ALL HERE I ALSO WOULD LIKE TO INTRODUCE, RONNIE MENTION THEM BUT THEY’RE SITTING IN THE FRONT ROW HERE, THEY WILL JOIN US IN THE PANEL. I’LL TELL YOU, THE FOUR OF US HAVE WORKED HARD ON THIS REPORT FOR ABOUT LAST SIX TO EIGHT MONTHS AND I COULDN’T ASK FOR A FOR GREATER GROUP OF COLLABORATORS THAN WHAT I HAD TO THE WORK WITH THESE THREE INDIVIDUALS. SO BOB OGLESBY IS SEATED CLOSEST TO ME HOLD UP YOUR HAND, BOBCLINT ROWE AND DEBORAH BATHKE SO ALL THREE OF THEM HAVE APPOINTMENTS, AS RONNIE SAID, IN THE DEPARTMENT OF EARTH AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES BOB OGLESBY ALSO HAS A JOINT APPOINTMENT IN THE SCHOOL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. SO ONE OF THE CARDINAL RULES ABOUT PUBLIC SPEAKING IS TO KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE AND SO AS I STARTED THINKING ABOUT THIS AUDIENCE AND THE DIVERSITY OF THE PEOPLE IN THIS AUDIENCE AND THEIR KNOWLEDGE OF THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE IT’S A VERY COMPLEX ONE I WAS TRYING TO THINK OF AN ANALOGY TO THE DIVERSITY THAT I SEE IN FRONT OF YOU YOU’LL KNOW THAT BEFORE I SHOW YOU MY NEXT SLIDE THIS REPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE END OF LECTURE AND IT WILL BE ON TABLES AROUND SO, THIS IS THE ANALOGY…
A NEBRASKA FOOTBALL GAME AND IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE DIVERSITY OF THE PEOPLE THAT ARE IN THE STADIUM IN TERMS OF THEIR UNDERSTANDING OF FOOTBALL, THE
REAL UNDERSTANDING OF FOOTBALL MAYBE YOU GET AN IDEA ABOUT THE DIVERSITY OF EXPERTISE AND UNDERSTANDING OF THIS ISSUE THAT EXIST IN THIS PARTICULAR AUDITORIUM TODAY AND THAT ARE LINKED IN VIA VIDEO LINK SO, I WAS THINKING ABOUT THIS AN IT SORT OF PUTS ME IN THAT PERSPECTIVE OF THINKING LIKE THE GEICO GECKO, IN THE SENSE THAT DOES EVERYBODY ALREADY KNOW THIS INFORMATION? WELL, OBVIOUSLY EVERYONE DOESN’T A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE ON WHAT I WOULD CALL THE NOVICE, BUT EAGER TO LEARN SIDE OTHER PEOPLE, THERE ARE MANY EXPERTS IN THIS ROOM THAT KNOW AS MUCH ABOUT THIS ISSUE OR MORE THAN I DO SO I WOULD ASK YOU AS WE GO THROUGH THIS, WHERE DO YOU PLACE YOURSELF ON THIS SCALE BETWEEN BEING AN EXPERT AND BEING A NOVICE? BUT HOPEFULLY REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU ARE ON THAT SCALE, THAT YOU HAVE COME THE LECTURE TO LEARN ABOUT THIS AND TO LEARN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS ON THE STATE OF NEBRASKA SO IF YOU CAME TO THE LECTURE HOPING IF YOU’RE A SKEPTIC, HOPING TO HEAR THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS A MYTH YOU’RE GOING TO BE DISAPPOINTED BECAUSE I’M NOT GOING TO SAY THAT BUT AGAIN I HOPE YOU CAME WITH AN OPEN MIND AND WILLINGNESS TO LISTEN AND TO LEARN ABOUT THE SCIENCE BEHIND CLIMATE CHANGES AS WELL AS THE IMPLICATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FOR NEBRASKA. SO THIS SLIDE SAYS DID YOU KNOW THAT 97% OF CLIMATE SCIENTISTS BELIEVE THAT HUMANS ARE CAUSING THE CURRENT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OF THE GOAL WARMING THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HERE TODAY THERE’S A SIGNIFICANT MISPERCEPTION ABOUT THAT AMONGST CERTAINLY THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY. I SAW A POLL THE OTHER DAY THAT SAID ONLY 12% OF AMERICANS UNDERSTAND THAT 97% OF THE CLIMATE SCIENCE COMMUNITY CONCLUDE THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS A RESULT OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES SO WE HAVE A LOT OF EDUCATING TO DO ON THAT PARTICLUAR SUBJECT SO THE OUTLINE FOR MY PRESENTATION IS GOING TO FOLLOW SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SEE IN THE REPORT THAT YOU WILL HAVE ACCESS TO FOLLOWING THIS LECTURE IN THE HALLWAY IN HARD COPY BUT ALSO ON-LINE THIS THE AVAILABLE IN ELECTRONIC FORMAT SO WE’LL TALK ABOUT THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE WE’LL GET INTO ISSUES OF THE OBSERVED CHANGES THAT WE’VE SEE TO DATE, TALK ABOUT THE PROJECTIONS AND ALSO SEPARATING NATURAL CAUSES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE WHICH IS ONE THING THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE GET CONFUSED ABOUT VERSUS HUMAN CAUSES. THEN WE WILL CONCLUDE WITH SOME TAKE AWAY POINTS SOME CHALLENGE AND OPPORTUNITIES AS WE MOVE FORWARD. SO FIRST OF ALL LET’S START WITH AN INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND. I’M GOING TO GIVE YOU A COUPLE OF DEFINITIONS I’M GOING TO GIVE YOU A COUPLE OF DEFINITIONS WHICH YOU MIGHT THINK IS A PRETTY PLACE TO, OR BEGINNING POINT WITH OUR CONVERSATION BUT I THINK IT’S IMPORTANT. SO THE FIRST DEFINITION IS ONE OF WEATHER WEATHER IS THE CONDITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN PARTICULAR PLACE AND TIME SO IT’S DEFINED BY WHETHER IT’S CLOUDY, WHETHER IT’S SUNNY, WIND SPEED, TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION. ALL OF THOSE VARIABLES WE’RE USED TO HEARING ABOUT ON OUR NIGHTLY NEWS. AS OPPOSED TO CLIMATE WHERE WE’RE LOOKING AT THE COMPOSITE OR THE AVERAGE OF WEATHER OVER LONGER PERIOD TIME TYPICAL AVERAGE IN PERIODS BEING THIRTY YEARS OR LONGER AND SO AN IMPORTANT PART OF CLIMATE ARE WHAT ARE THE TRENDS ASSOCIATE WITH CLIMATE? AND SO THIS SOMETHING WE WILL TALK ABOUT MARK TWAIN SAID IT THIS WAY, “CLIMATE IS WHAT TO EXPECT AND WEATHER IS WHAT YOU GET” SO THAT’S ANOTHER WAY TO MAKE A DISTINCTION BETWEEN WEATHER AND CLIMATE. NOW I BRING THIS UP BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT MANY PEOPLE GET THESE TWO TERMS MIXED UP OR CONFUSED BY WHAT’S WEATHER AND WHAT CLIMATE SO LET ME GET GIVE YOU COUPLE EXAMPLE OF THIS TYPE OF CONFUSION SO HERE’S A MAP THAT SHOWS JULY TEMPERATURE, LAND AND OCEAN TEMPERATURE 2014 AND IF YOU LOOK AT THAT CIRCLE WHAT I’VE BUT UP ON THE SCREEN NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WAS COOL . WE AT A COLD JULY AND A WET JULY. SO SOME PEOPLE WILL SAY “WELL SEE, GLOBAL WARNING MUST BE A HOAX.” CAUSE WE HAD A COOL JULY AND WE PROBABLY HAD SOME WHAT OF A COOL AUGUST AS WELL ROBERTO LENTON AND I JUST CAME BACK FROM STOCKHOLM RECENTLY FOR “STOCKHOLM WATER WEEK” AND THE PEOPLE THERE WERE TALKING ABOUT WHAT A BEAUTIFUL WARM SUMMER THEY HAD THROUGHOUT EUROPE THIS YEAR. WE’RE TALKING ABOUT WEATHER SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN THAT AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION AND OTHER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT THAT PARTICULAR POINT IN TIME SO PEOPLE WILL SAY, “BUT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT GLOBAL WARNING WHY DID WE HAVE A COOL JULY?” AGAIN IT’S WEATHER VERSUS CLIMATE. ANOTHER EXAMPLE IS IF YOU LOOK AT A PLOT GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE SOME PEOPLE WILL POINT TO PARTICULAR YEAR’S WHERE LIKE IN 2000 AND 2008 WHERE GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE ACTUALLY DROPPED. AGAIN THAT’S WEATHER OVER SHORT TIME SCALE WHAT’S IMPORTANT HERE IS THE TREND SO AGAIN THE CONFUSION BETWEEN WEATHER AND CLIMATE CAUSES A LOT OF PEOPLE TO MAYBE NOT UNDERSTAND THIS ISSUE IN SO MANY WAYS SO WE WERE FORTUNATE WE DID AN EXTENSIVE REVIEW OF LITERATURE. BUILDING UPON THE EXPERTISE OF THE FOUR MEMBERS OF THE TEAM WE ALSO WORK WITH, AS RONNIE SAID, SOME OTHER PEOPLE THAT WROTE COMMENTARIES ON VARIOUS SECTORS SO WE ENGAGED OTHER PEOPLE THAN JUST THE FOUR OF US. BUT TWO VERY IMPORT REPORTS THAT JUST HAPPENED AT COME OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH OUR STUDY FIRST ONE IS THE MOST RECENT REPORT OF THE INNER GOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE THAT DOES A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS OF THAT IMPACT, MITIGATION OPTIONS AND SO FORTH AND THIS REPORT IS ACTUALLY A NUMBER REPORTS. FIRST ONES WERE ISSUED IN THE LATE 2013 THE OTHERS IN EARLY 2014 AND SO WE RELIED HEAVILY OBVIOUSLY ON THE LATEST INFORMATION COMING FROM THIS GROUP OF MORE THAN A THOUSAND SCIENTISTS THAT PARTICIPATE IN THIS I.P.C.C. PROCESS THE SECOND REPORT IS THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT THAT WAS RELEASED IN MAY OF THIS YEAR SO THIS REPORT FOCUSES ON THE UNITED STATES AND IS THE THIRD REPORT THAT’S BEEN DONE AND GENERALLY DONE ABOUT EVERY SIX OR SEVEN YEARS AS WELL SO THIS ONE GIVES US MORE INFORMATION THAT IS MORE SPECIFIC TO THE UNITED STATES AND SO THIS IS VERY HELPFUL AND THIS REPORT IS DIVIDED INTO ABOUT THIRTY TWO DIFFERENT CHAPTERS. THERE IS SOME OVER VIEW CHAPTER OF PROJECTIONS. THERE ARE ALSO CHARACTERS ON VARIOUS REGIONS INCLUDING ONE FOR THE GREAT PLAINS THERE ARE ALSO CHAPTER THAT FOCUS ON DIFFERENT SECTORS AND SO I PULLED SOME OF THE KEY SECTORS FOR NEBRASKA AND WE USED COMMENTARIES TO ESSENTIALLY DISCUSS THOSE SECTORS IN TERMS OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THOSE SECTORS AND THAT’S IN THE REPORT. YOU’LL SEE THAT. YOU’LL SEE THAT LATER SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE I.P.C.C. REPORT AND YOU CAN READ THE LANGUAGE AT THE TOP THERE, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE LANGUAGE IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH THE EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN INFLUENCE HAS GROWN SINCE A.R.4 WHICH IS THE ASSESSMENT REPORT FOUR WHICH WAS ISSUED IN 2007 IF YOU REMEMBER THIS REPORT IS ONE THAT WON THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE BECAUSE OF BRINGING THIS ATTENTION TO THIS REPORT AND THIS ISSUE TO THE ATTENTION OF MANY PEOPLE IT SAYS HUMAN INFLUENCE EXTREMELY LIKELY AT GREATER THAN 95% SO FROM A SCIENCE PERSPECTIVE 95% IS PRETTY HIGH PROBABILITY SO WE BELIEVE THE SCIENCE BELIEVES THAT HUMANS ARE THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF THE CHANGES IN CLIMATE THAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. OKAY, SECONDLY CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE SO MANY PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE FACT WELL WE ALL KNOW THAT THERE HAVE BEEN ICE AGES WE ALL KNOW THAT THERE BEEN WARMING PERIODS AND THESE HAVE OCCURRED OVER THOUSANDS OF YEARS AND THESE NATURAL FORCES THAT ARE CAUSING THESE CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE ARE STILL OCCURING TODAY BUT THESE OCCUR OVER LONG TIME SCALES OF THOUSANDS OF YEARS. AND SO WE HAVE ISSUES OF CHANGES IN A BIT IN THE ORBIT OR THE WOBBLING OF THE EARTH WE HAVE SOLAR OUTPUT IN TERMS OF THE ENERGY AND SO FORTH. AND HOW THAT VARIES THROUGH TIME WE HAVE THINGS LIKE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EVENTS THAT AGAIN ARE CAUSING CHANGES IN A CLIMATE AND WE HAVING THINGS LIKE STRATOSPHERIC OZONE RELATED TO LARGE SCALE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS. SO THESE NATURAL INFLUENCES ARE OCCURRING TODAY AND THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST AND THEY ARE THE REASON OF HOW WE EXPLAIN THE MOVEMENT FROM ICE AGE TO WARM PERIODS AND AND SO FORTH BUT WE ALSO HAVE ANTHROPOGENIC OR HUMAN INFLUENCES ON THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IT’S JUST THAT THERE HAVEN’T BEEN THAT MANY OF US ON EARTH FOR ALL AT LONG OF A PERIOD OF TIME AND SO THESE INFLUENCE HAVEN’T BEEN THAT SIGNIFICANT IN THE PAST NOW WE OF SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE PROJECTED TO BE 9 TO 9.6 BILLION PEOPLE BY 2050 SO WE ARE HAVING AN INFLUENCE ON OUR CLIMATE SYSTEM. SO ONE OF THOSE INFLUENCES IS THE INCREASING CONCENTRATION OF GREEN HOUSE GASES CO2 IS THE ONE THAT YOU HEAR THE MOST ABOUT BUT WE ALSO HAVE CHANGES IN AIR CELL PARTIALS AS RESULT OF THE BURNING OF BIOMASS, SMOKE, AND SO FORTH. AND THEN CHANGES IN LAND USE. YOU KNOW, SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE HAVE CHANGED A LOT OF THE LAND CHARACTERISTICS IN THE WORLD UP TO THIS POINT IN TIME AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO THAT IN THE FUTURE SO, IN RECENT DECADES SINCE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION WE’VE HAD A GROWING INFLUENCE ON THE CLIMATE SYSTEM AND PARTICULARLY SINCE SAY THE 1960S 1970S THIS HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT AS WE LOOK AT GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES, REGIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES, CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION, REDUCTION IN GLACIAL EXTENT, ALPINE AS WELL AS THE GLACIERS IN ANTARCTICA AND THE ARCTIC AND SO FORTH AND THE LAND USE CHANGES CONTINUE AS WELL SO WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? WELL… MOST THAT YOU LEARNED IN OBVIOUSLY IN YOUR HIGH SCHOOL SCIENCE CLASSES ABOUT THE COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AND YOU KNOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMARILY MADE UP OF NITROGEN AND OXYGEN AND THEN WE HAVE THIS SMALL QUANTITY OF CO2, AND OTHER TRACE GASES OR GREENHOUSE GASES SUCH AS METHANE, NITROUS OXIDE, AND WATER VAPOR THAT’S ALSO IN THE ATMOSPHERE. AND THIS MAKES UP ONLY 1% OR LESS OF THE COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SO PEOPLE WILL SAY “WELL… WHY IS THIS 1% SO IMPORTANT?” WELL IT’S SO IMPORTANT BECAUSE THESE GREEN HOUSE GAS ARE THE HEAT REGULATORS FOR THE EARTH SO WE’VE KNOWN FOR MORE THAN A CENTURY THAT IF YOU INCREASE THE CONCENTRATION OF GREEN HOUSE GASES YOU’RE GOING TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURE OF THE EARTH. AND WE CAN TRACK THIS BACK IN GEOLOGIC HISTORY AS WELL IN TERMS OF ALL THESE CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. SO WITHOUT THESE GREEN HOUSE GASES THE EARTH’S SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD BE AROUND FIFTY SEVEN DEGREES COOL THAN WHAT IT IS TODAY SO AGAIN, THESE GREEN HOUSE GASES ARE THE HEAT REGULATORS AND IT’S THE CONCENTRATION OF THOSE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT ARE REALLY, REALLY IMPORTANT. SO WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE EARTH’S ENERGY BALANCE WE RECEIVE SHORT WAVES SOLAR RADIATION FROM THE SUN, OUR PRIMARY SOURCE OF ENERGY AND WHEN THAT ENERGY IS OBSORBED BY THE EARTH, IT’S RE-RADIATED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AND WHEN IT IS RE-RADIATED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE IT’S RE-RADIATED AS INFRARED RADIATION LONG WAVE RADIATION SO WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS TRANSPARENT RELATIVELY TRANSPARENT TO THE SHORT WAVE SOLAR RADIATION IT IS NO LONGER TRANSPARENT TO THE LONGER WAVE INFRARED RADIATION AND SO THESE ARE THE HEAT TRAPPING GREEN HOUSE GASES THAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT SO IF ENERGY IN IS EQUAL TO THE ENERGY OUT THAN WE HAVE A STEADY STATE IN TERMS OF OUR CLIMATE IF WE UPSET THAT BALANCE THAN WE CHANGE ALL OF THAT SO THE GREEN HOUSE AFFECT. YOU HEAR ABOUT THE GREEN HOUSE AFFECT AND BASICALLY I JUST EXPLAINED THAT TO YOU THAT AGAIN SOLAR RADIATION, THE ATMOSPHERE OF RELATIVELY TRANSPARENT TO THE SOLAR RADIATION BUT IS NOT TRANSPARENT TO THE INFRARED RADIATION, AS IT’S RE-RADIATED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AND EVENTUALLY BACK INTO SPACE. SO IT THEN STANDS TO REASON THAT IF WE INCREASE THE LEVEL OF CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND OTHER GREEN HOUSE GAS WHAT WE’RE DOING ESSENTIALLY IS ENHANCING THE GREEN HOUSE EFFECT. AND SO WE WOULD EXPECT THE CLIMATE TO WARM. AND THAT IN FACT IS WHAT’S WHAT’S HAPPENING SO IF YOU LOOK AT JUST IN RECENT YEARS THE CONCENTRATION OF CARBON DIOXIDE METHANE NITRIC OXIDE IN THE ATMOSPHERE YOU CAN SEE A RATHER STEEP UPWARD TREND. YOU ALSO SEE THE CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS OVER HERE THAT ARE INCREASING RATHER DRAMATICLY UNTIL IT THE NINETEEN NINETIES WHEN THERE WAS A FLATTENING AND THIS FLATTENING IF YOU REMEMBER THE CONCERN ABOUT THE OZONE HOLE AND TRYING TO CONTROL THAT IN THESE CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS WHAT WAS CAUSING THE DETERIORATION OF THE OZONE HOLE. OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE OZONE HOLE. AND SO YOU SEE THAT INTERNATIONAL TREATIES WE HAVE BEEN ABLE PLATEAU THIS OR BRING THOSE CONCENTRATIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE DOWN. SO WE CAN DO THE SAME THING WITH THESE OTHER GREEN HOUSE GASES BUT IT TAKES AGREEMENT GLOBALLY TO DO THIS. COUNTRIES HAVE TO COME TOGETHER TO DO THIS. IF WE LOOK AT A LONGER TERM TREND OR PLOT OF CO2. THIS GOES BACK SIX AND FIFTY THOUSAND YEARS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION THE CONCENTRATION OF CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE WAS TWO HUNDRED EIGHTY PARTS PER MILLION BY 1950 IT HAD REACHED THREE HUNDRED IN MAY OF THIS YEAR IT REACHED FOUR HUNDRED AND TWO. THIS IS GOING TO GO TO 450, ITS GOING TO GO TO 500 AND BEYOND UNLESS WE DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. SO PEOPLE MAY SAY, “WELL… WE’VE HAD ICE AGES IN THE PAST AND WE’VE HAD THESE CHANGES IN PAST THE DIFFERENCE IS AS I MENTIONED EARLIER IS NOW WE HAVE SEVEN PLUS BILLION PEOPLE HEADED TOWARD NINE PLUS BILLION PEOPLE ALL COMPETING FOR RESOURCES ALL COMPETING FOR FOOD. “THE WATER FOR FOOD INSTITUTE” FOCUS ON THINGS LIKE HOW DO WE FEED NINE BILLION PEOPLE IN THE FUTURE WORKING WITH OTHER ORGANIZATIONS AND SO FORTH THIS IS A HUGE ISSUE FOR OUR FUTURE FOR YOUR CHILDREN THEIR CHILDREN AND SO FORTH. SO THE CONCERN IS THAT THE CHANGES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST AS THE RESULT OF NATURAL FORCING HAVE OCCURRED OVER TENS OF THOUSANDS OF YEARS. WHERE AS THE FORCING THE HUMAN FORCING WE’RE LOOKING AT CHANGES OCCURRING IN THE PERIOD OF LESS THAN A HUNDRED YEARS. A RAPID CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE, AND AFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION AND OTHER THINGS. SO WHAT ARE THE OBSERVERS CHANGES. WELL WE CAN GO INTO GREAT DEAL OF DETAILS ABOUT THESE IN TERMS OF ALL THE CHANGES WE ARE SEEING I THINK ALL OF YOU CAN UNDERSTAND THE FACT THAT WE ARE SEEING A LOT OF CHANGES IN OUR CLIMATE. SO ONE WAY TO LOOK AT THAT IS… OKAY… IF WE HAD A WARMING WORLD WHAT INDICATORS WOULD WE BE LOOKING AT TO TELL US THAT WE DO IN FACT HAVE A WARMING WORLD SO HERE YOU HAVE TEN INDICATORS THE WHITE ARROWS ARE THOSE THINGS THAT WE WOULD EXPECT TO BE INCREASING THE AIR TEMPERATURE OVER LAND, AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE OVER OCEANS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND THEN THERE ARE THREE ARROWS THAT YOU SEE THAT ARE BLACK ARROWS GOING DOWN WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A REDUCTION IN SEA ICE, REDUCTION IN GLACIERS, SNOW COVER, AND SO ON IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATA SET FOR ALL TEN OF THESE INDICATORS, THEY ALL VERIFY THAT THIS WHAT’S HAPPENING. SO THERE’S A LOT OF DATA THAT BACKS THIS UP AND WE HAVE MORE AND MORE DATA ALL OF THE TIME. THROUGH SATELLITE IMAGES AND SO FORTH. SO, OUR OBSERVATION NETWORKS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. IF WE LOOK AT THESE TEMPERATURE CHANGES BY DECADE WE SEE THAT YOU KNOW THE 1980S WAS THE WARMEST DECADE ON RECORD THEN LOOK AT THE 1990S THEN 2001 TO 2012 AGAIN EVEN WARMER. SO INCREASING TEMPERATURES GLOBALLY THEN OF COURSE WE ARE ALSO SEEING THIS LOCALLY. WHAT I CONSIDER TO BE A REMARKABLE STATISTIC IS IF YOU LOOK AT AS OF THROUGH JULY OF 2014 WE HAD 353 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS WHERE THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE EXCEEDED THE TWENTIETH CENTURY AVERAGE FOR THOSE MONTH. 353 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS. SO, WE’RE TALKING ABOUT TRENDS SO IF WE LOOK AT THE UNITED STATES AND SAY “WELL, WHERE HAVE WE WARMED IN THE UNITED STATES?” WELL THE WARMING IN THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN LARGELY IN WESTERN PART OF THE U. S. AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE BIT OF COOLING IN THE SOUTHEAST OVER THIS PERIOD AND IS LOOKING AT COMPARING RECENT YEARS TO THE 1901 TO THE 1960 AVERAGE NEBRASKA IS KIND OF IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL OF THIS SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE IT VARIOUS FROM ONE PART OF THE STATE TO ANOTHER WE SEE THIS IN A LOT OF DIFFERENT WAYS. IF WE LOOK AT THE STATISTICS ON HEATING DEMAND FOR EXAMPLE WE SEE THAT HEATING DEMAND IN THE UNITED STATES IS DROPPING WHY? WARMER TEMPERATURES. WELL THEN WHAT WOULD YOU THINK ABOUT COOLING DEMAND WELL COOLING DEMAND IS INCREASING SO THIS IS A REFLECTION OF THE CHANGES THAT WE ARE SEEING. NOT ONLY DAY TIME TEMPERATURES, BUT NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WINTER TEMPERATURES ARE LESS SERVER AND SO FORTH. SO THIS IS ANOTHER ANOTHER GOOD INDICATOR AND THIS IS ONE OF RONNIE’S FAVORITE INDICATORS PLANT HARDINESS ZONES. IF YOU LOOK AT THE PLANT HARDINESS ZONE, IN 1990 WE CAN SEE THAT THE ZONE BETWEEN FOUR AND FIVE LINE BETWEEN THOSE TWO THAT I MARKED HERE WITH AN ORANGE LINE RAN BASICALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEBRASKA. IN 2012 THIS ZONE HAD MOVED TO THE BORDER OF SOUTH DAKOTA. SO THESE ZONES ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND THE PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THESE ARE GOING TO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. AND I’LL TALK A LITTLE MORE ABOUT THAT IN A FEW MINUTES OBSERVED INCREASES IN FROST-FREE SEASON THE AVERAGE FOR THE GREAT PLANES FROST-FREE SEASON OF INCREASED ABOUT TEN DAYS IN NEBRASKA IT VARIES FROM ABOUT FIVE TO TWENTY FIVE DAYS DEPENDING ON WHICH PART OF THE STATE YOU ARE IN. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION THE GREATEST INCREASES IN PRECIPITATION AGAIN REMEMBER THAT WARMER TEMPERATURES MEANS THE AIR CAN HOLD MORE MOISTURE. SO YOU WOULD EXPECT TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION. AND SO IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES IN THE UNITED STATES WE’VE HAD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. IN NEBRASKA THE RESULTS ARE SOMEWHAT MIXED DRYING TRENDS SOME WHAT IN THE WESTERN PART OF COUNTRY OR IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE, AND EASTERN PART OF THE STATE SOME INCREASES BUT NOTICE THESE INCREASES IF YOU LOOK AT THE THE SCALE OVER ON THE RIGHT ARE RELATIVELY MINOR WE’RE TALKING A FEW PERCENTAGE INCREASES. IF WE LOOK AT THE OBSERVED CHANGE IN VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ONE OF THE THINGS WE ARE SEEING IS THAT WHILE THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT YOU’RE RECEIVING ON AN ANNUAL BASES MAY NOT BE INCREASING FOR SOME LOCATIONS MORE OF THAT RAIN MORE OF THAT PRECIPITATION IS COMING IN THE FORM OF HEAVY OR INTENSE EVENTS, WHICH MEANS THE MORE WATER RUNS OFF LESS GOES INTO THE SOIL AND SO FORTH. ANOTHER BIG CONCERN IS RELATED TO EXTREME EVENTS AND THE FREQUENCY OF EXTREME EVENTS THAT WE’RE SEEING. AND YOU SEE HERE METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL TYPE OF EVENTS AND IF YOU LOOKED AT THE TRENDS OF THOSE GOING BACK TO 1980 YOU CAN SEE RATHER DRAMATIC INCREASE AGAIN WITH FLUCTUATION OR VARIABILITY FROM YEAR TO YEAR WHICH IS CAUSED BY DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERNS. WHAT’S CONCERNING IS THE TREND. THE MORE RECENTLY WE’VE SEEN AN EVEN A STEEPER TREND. SO WHY ARE WE CONCERN ABOUT EXTREME EVENTS? WELL THEY PUT TREMENDOUS SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS ON SOCIETY. AND ALSO TREMENDOUS ECONOMIC COSTS TO REBUILD OR TO RECOVER FROM THESE EVENTS SO THINK ABOUT SUPER STRONG SANDY. WHICH MORE THAN FIFTY BILLION DOLLARS HAS BEEN ALLOCATED TO REBUILDING FROM SUPER STORM SANDY. SIXTY TWO BILLION DOLLARS WAS SPENT BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IN RESPONSE TO THE 2011 – 2012 DROUGHT THESE ARE VERY EXPENSIVE EVENTS AND IF WE LOOK AT THE TREND THE TOTAL COST IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IS SKYROCKETING. WHO’S PAYING FOR THIS? YOU’RE PAYING FOR THIS. THIS IS TAXPAYERS DOLLARS. I’LL JUST LET YOU LOOK AT THE SLIDEI THINK IT NEEDS NO EXPLAINATION. OKAY? OKAY, SO SEPARATING NATURAL FROM HUMAN FACTORS SO YOU PROBABLY ALL SEEN A OF SLIDE THAT RESSEMBLES THIS AT SOME POINT LOOKING IN BOOKS AND MAGAZINE ARTICLES AND NEWSPAPERS AND SO FORTH. SO HERE YOU HAVE THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES THE GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND HERE YOU HAVE A PLOT THAT SHOWS THE CO2 CONCENTRATIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. OBVIOUSLY VERY STRONG COORELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO. SO HOW DO YOU SEPERATE NATURAL CAUSES, WHICH WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER, FROM HUMAN CAUSES WELL WE HAVE PEOPLE WHO ARE CALLED CLIMATE MODELERS AND WE HAVE A GENERAL OR GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELS THAT THEY RUN. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW THOSE THOSE MODELS, WE HAVE A COUPLE GUYS OVER HERE THAT ARE VERY EXPERIENCE IN WORKING WITH THESE MODELS AS WELL AND SO IF WE LOOK AT THIS PARTICULAR DIAGRAM WHAT YOU SEE HERE IS THAT IF YOU RUN A COMPUTER MODELS AND WE DON’T INCLUDED THE INCREASING CONCENTRATIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND OTHER GREEN HOUSE GASES IN THE MODELS WHAT YOU GET IS WHAT YOU SEE WITH THIS PATTERN HERE IN GREEN. WHICH IS ACTUALLY A SLIGHT COOLING IS WHAT THE MODELS WOULD BE PROJECTING. IF YOU INSERT CARBON DIOXIDE AND OTHER GREEN HOUSE GASES BACK INTO THESE MODELS YOU GET WHAT’S SHOWN HERE IN THE PURPLE AREA. THE BLACK LINE REPRESENTS GLOBAL MEANS TEMPERATURE. SO YOU CAN SEE HOW CLOSELY GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TREND MATCHES WHAT WE SEE IF WE INCLUDE THE GREEN HOUSE GASES IN THESE MODEL RUNS. SO AGAIN AS MORE EVIDENCE THAT WE’RE GETTING THIS RIGHT. WE UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENING IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. AND WE ARE ABLE TO REPLICATE THAT TO THESE CLIMATE MODELS SO MORE, SORT OF, AMMUNITION, OR INFORMATION ABOUT THIS IS HERE YOU SEE AGAIN A PLOT OF GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND THE MORE RECENT YEARS WITH A RATHER SPEED UPWARD TREND. SO YOU REMEMBER WHEN WE TALKED ABOUT THAT THERE WERE NATURAL FACTORS THAT CAUSE CHANGES IN CLIMATE, AND WE TALKED ABOUT WHAT THOSE WERE. OUTPUT OF THE SUN, IN TERMS OF IT’S ENERGY, OUTPUT OF VOLCANIC ERRUPTION AND SO ON SO LET’S LOOK OF THOSE TRENDS EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION WAS ONE. DO YOU SEE A TREND? IF YOU LOOK AT THE TREND RELATED TO VOLCANOS THERE’S NO TREND. IF YOU LOOK AT SOLAR ENERGY OUTPUT ONCE AGAIN NO TREND. IF YOU LOOK AT OTHER FACTORS OTHER ATMOSPHERIC OSCILLATIONS, AND SO ON, ONCE AGAIN YOU HAVE NO TREND. IF YOU LOOK ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS YOU SEE A TREND THAT MATCH IS WHAT YOU SEE UP HERE. THIS IS THE CHART THAT COMES OUT OF THE I.P.P.C REPORT. OKAY. PROJECTIONS FUTURE CLIMATE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR NEBRASKA SO FIRST OF ALL A LITTLE BIT ABOUT MODELS AND YOU MAY HAVE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT MODELS AND I’LL POINT AT THESE GUYS OVER HERE TO ANSWER THOSE QUESTIONS BECAUSE THEY ARE THE MODELERS. BUT ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE EARLY MODELS IN THE 1970S IS THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE COMPLEX. THEY’RE INCORPORATING MORE INFORMATION IN THE MODELS AND SO ON WE GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM WE CAN SEE THESE GRID CELLS AT WHICH THEY CALCULATE THESE CHANGES ARE GETTING SMALLER AND THESE ACRONYMS HERE REPRESENT THE DIFFERENT REPORTS THAT CAME OUT OF FROM I.P.P.C. THIS IS THE FIRST ANNUAL ASSESSMENT FIRST ASSESSMENT REPORT, THE SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT, AND SO FORTH AND THEN THE ASSESSMENT REPORT NUMBER FOUR. YOU SEE ALSO MORE COMPLEXITY IN TERMS OF NUMBER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, NUMBER OF LAYERS IN THE OCEAN THAT THEY ARE ABLE TO INCORPORATE IN THESE MODELS SO WERE CONTINUING TO BETTER UNDERSTAND A CLIMATE SYSTEM THE TECHNOLOGY IN THE TERMS OF COMPUTER POWER IS ALLOWING US TO RUN BIGGER MORE SOPHITICATED MODELS AND SO FORTH SO WHEN THEY RUN THE MODELS THEY RUN THE MODELS AND THEY HAVE TO LOOK AT WHAT ARE THE VARIOUS SENARIOS OF INCREASING GREEN HOUSE GASES THAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE IN THE FUTURE NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THOSE ARE GOING TO BE. WE KNOW WHERE WE ARE TODAY, BUT WHERE ARE WE GOING TO BE IN 20 YEARS, 40 YEARS, 60 YEARS AND SO FORTH. SO THE CLIMATE MODELERS LOOK AT SCENARIOS SO THIS FIRST SCENARIO IS THE RED LINE IT’S ESSENTIALLY A BUSINESS AS USUAL WE JUST KEEP DOING WHAT WE ARE DOING. BURING MORE AND MORE FOSSIL FUELS AND SO FORTH. ADDING MORE AND MORE CARBON TO THE ATMOSPHERE. AND THEN YOU HAVE AT THE OTHER EXTREME YOU HAVE A SITUATION WHERE WE MAY BE DECREASING TREMENDOUSLY THE AMOUNT OF EMISSIONS INTO THE ATMOSPHERE OVER A PERIOD TIME THIS IS EXTREMELY OPTIMISTIC PROBABLY WON’T HAPPEN THAT’S THE LOWERED EMISSIONS SCENARIO THIS IS A HIGHER EMISSIONS SCENARIO AND QUITE FRANKLIN BUSINESS AS USUAL, WE’RE ACTUALLY EXCEEDING THIS LEVEL OF INPUT OF GREEN HOUSE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE. SO WHEN PEOPLE SAY “WELL WE CAN’T REALLY BELIEVE THESE MODELS BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT VERY GOOD BECAUSE LOOK AT THE WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES” AND WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT IN A MINUTE THAT ARE IN THESE MODELS, ACTUALLY THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY THAT YOU SEE WHEN I GIVE YOU SOME TEMPERATURE RANGES IN A MINUTE THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCIATE WITH THE FACT THAT WE DON’T KNOW WHAT HUMAN BEHAVIOR IS GOING TO BE OVER THE NEXT THIRTY, FORTY, SIXTY, HUNDRED YEARS. WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE EMISSIONS ARE GOING TO BE AND THEREFORE WERE THE CONCENTRATION ARE GOING TO GO SO HOW DO WE GO ABOUT LOOKING AT THE IMPLICATIONS OF ALL OF THIS ON NEBRASKA? FIRST THING IS WE ASSESSED THE OBSERVED CHANGES IN CLIMATE THAT WE’VE SEEN TO DATE SO OVER THE HISTORICAL RECORD LOOKING BACK TO THE LATE SAY 1895 AND THAT PERIOD SECONDLY WE TRIED TO INTERPRET THE PROJECTIONS THAT CAME FROM THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT THESE ARE NATIONAL IN SCOOP BUT THEY ALSO HAVE PROJECTIONS AT A REGIONAL SCALE AND WE TRIED TO BRING THOSE DOWN TO NEBRASKA AND INTERPRET WHAT THE INFORMATION WAS AND THEN THE THIRD STEP IN THIS PROCESS WITH TO INVITE COMMENTARIES FROM EXPERTS IN THE KEY SECTORS THAT WE FELT WERE IMPORTANT FOR NEBRASKA. AND TO HAVE THESE EXPERTS TALK ABOUT WHAT THESE PROJECTED CHANGES MIGHT BE ON EACH OF THESE DIFFERENT SECTORS. THESE SECTORS WERE CHOSEN NOT JUST BECAUSE THEY’RE IMPORTANT TO NEBRASKA, BUT ALL OF THE SECTORS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY ALL OF THESE SECTORS WE’RE SECTORS THAT WERE ADDRESSED IN THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT. SO WE HAD THAT AS THE BASES PROJECTIONS, PROJECTIONS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND THEN THEY DREW SOME CONCLUSIONS WITH REGARDS TO THESE SECTORS. SO THESE ARE INCLUDED IN THE REPORT. AND I ENCOURAGE YOU TO READ THOSE. I THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF GREAT IDEAS, THERE IS A LOT OF GREAT INFORMATION. SO TEMPERATURE INCREASES WE KNOW MEAN TO SCARE YOU. WE’RE TRYING TO GIVE YOU WHAT THE SCIENCE IS TELLING US. FOR A LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIO, WE JUST LOOKED AT THE GRAPH OF THAT, WE’RE LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE TOWARDS THE FINAL QUARTER OF THIS CENTURY OF FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND AS I SAID THAT’S A PRETTY UNREALISTIC SCENARIO. BECAUSE IT MEANS THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO ADOPT VERY STRICT CONTROLS ON CARBON EMISSIONS INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGHER EMISSIONS SCENARIO IS PROJECTING AN EIGHT TO NINE DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE BY THE LAST QUARTER OF THIS CENTURY. THAT’S PRETTY SCARY. BUT AGAIN THE UNCERTAINTIES ARE REALLY RELATED TO THE FACT THAT WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE FUTURE EMISSIONS ARE GOING TO BE SO IT’S IMPORTANT THAT WE GET A HANDLE ON THOSE AND WE BETTER UNDERSTAND THOSE RELATIONSHIP. ANOTHER KEY FINDING IS THAT PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS DAYS, SO THESE ARE DAYS OVER A HUNDRED DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FOR THE FINAL QUARTER OF THE CENTURY UNDER THE LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIO THIRTEEN TO SIXTEEN ADDITIONAL DAYS UNDER THE HIGH EMISSIONS SCENARIO TWENTY-TWO TO TO TWENTY-FIVE ADDITIONAL DAYS SO TRY TO REMEMBER THOSE NUMBERS CAUSE I’M GOING COME BACK TO THAT IN A FEW MINUTES. YESTERDAY WE HAD SOME CONFERENCE CALLS TALKING TO THE CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATIONS AND TO THE STATE SENATORS AND SO FORTH, THE QUESTION WAS RAISED WITH WHAT IF WE’RE WRONG ON, FOR EXAMPLE, THIS FIRST SET OF NUMBERS WE MAY BE WRONG BUT PEOPLE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE COULD BE WRONG IN BOTH DIRECTION SO IT’S NOT… PEOPLE TEND TO THINK WE ARE GOING TO BE WRONG ON THE LOW SIDE BUT WE COULD BE WRONG ON THE HIGH SIDE AS WELL THE NUMBER OF WARM NIGHTS WE’VE SEEN AN INCREASE IN THAT TO DATE AND THIS IS GOING TO CONTINUE IN THE FUTURE FROST-FREE SEASON, WE’VE SEEN QUITE AN INCREASE IN THE LENGTH OF FROST-FREE SEASON AND IT IS PROJECTED AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL TWO WEEKS ADDED ON TO THE FROST-FEE SEASON TOWARDS THE END OF THIS CENTURY. IF YOU LOOK AT THIS IN A MAP FORM THE LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIO THE LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIO IS FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES THAT’S THIS MAP HERE. AND YOU CAN SEE HOW NEBRASKA SITS IN THAT. A THE HIGH EMISSIONS SCENARIO YOU CAN SEE WHERE WE SIT AT THE FOUR TO NINE DEGREE. SO THIS MAPS COMES OUT OF THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSOCIATION REPORT. AND THIS REPORT IS MANDATED BY THE U. S. CONGRESS BY THE WAY, SO IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT IS BEING DONE ARBITRARILY. COMING BACK TO THIS ISSUE OF THE NUMBER OF HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS DAYS THIS IS PROJECTION OF HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS DAYS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS CENTURY OUT TO 2099. AND THE HIGHER EMISSIONS SCENARIO ARE THE RED BARS THE LOWER EMISSIONS SCENARIO ARE THE ORANGE BARS AND THE YOU SEE THESE BARS IN BROWN THIS IS THE HISTORICAL NUMBER OF HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS DAYS THAT WOULD OCCUR WITHIN THESE DIFFERENT REGIONS SO IF YOU LOOK AT WHERE ARE THE BIG LOSERS REGIONAL LOSERS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, THE GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTH EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS DAYS SO YOU REMEMBER TWO YEARS AGO? WE HAD A VERY SEVERE, EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IN NEBRSAKA AND OVER TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES ONE OF THE CHARACTERISTICS THE DROUGHT WAS NOT JUST A DEFICIENCY OF PRECIPITATION BUT IT WAS THE EXTREMELY HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WERE EXPERIENCING. SO THIS IS THE MAP THAT SHOWS A NUMBER OF DAYS OVER HUNDRED DEGREES IN 2012 BETWEEN JUNE FIRST AND SEPTEMBER FIFTEENTH AND I’VE EXTRACTED FOR A COUPLE OF LOCATION LINCOLN AND MCCOOK THIS IS THE NUMBER OF DAYS OVER HUNDRED DEGREES IN LINCOLN AND MCCOOK IN 2012 LINCOLN WAS SEVENTEEN DAYS AND MCCOOK WAS THIRTY SEVEN DAYS THE AVERAGE FROM MCCOOK BASED ON THE LAST CLIMATOLOGICAL PERIOD IS ABOUT ELEVEN THEY HAD THIRTY SEVEN LINCOLN’S ABOUT FIVE THEY HAD SEVENTEEN YOU CAN SEE THE SIMILAR COMPARISON FOR SCOTTSBLUFF, VALENTINE, AND NORTH PLATTE SO THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS IF THESE PROJECTIONS HOLD OUT BY THE LAST QUARTER OF THIS CENTURY AN AVERAGE SUMMER IN NEBRASKA WOULD BE COMPARABLE TO 2012 THINK ABOUT THAT A MINUTE. OKAY CONTINUING ON PRECIPITATION THERE REALLY HASN’T BEEN MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA, THERE’S BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WE SAW THAT ON PREVIOUS MAP A DECREASE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WE EXPECTED THAT TO CONTINUE AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRECIPITATION IN WINTER AND SPRING IN NEBRASKA SMALL PROJECTED CHANGES IN SUMMER AND FALL WITH A DRYING TREND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SUMMER AN INCREASE IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION WE’VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THAT’S BEEN OCCURRING AND THAT’S EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IF THERE’S ANY INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION LARGELY GOING TO BE INEFFECTIVE BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES INCREASING EVAPORATIVE DEMAND AND SO ON THESE HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS DAYS WARMER NIGHTS AND SO FORTH SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE THE PROJECTIONS BY SEASON THIS IS A SUMMER TIME PROJECTION THAT YOU CAN SEE THIS DRYING PATTERN UP INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. SOIL MOISTURE; A COMBINATION OF NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION BUT LOOKING AT THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, INCREASED IN HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS DAYS THE WARMER NIGHTS AND SO ON THAT WE WOULD EXPECT MAYBE A DECREASE OF SOIL MOISTURE FIVE TO TEN PERCENT. FLOOD MAGNITUDE BECAUSE OF THESE HIGH INTENSITY RAIN FALL EVENTS FLOOD MAGNITUDES CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN WHAT WE’VE SEEN IN THE PAST OF THESE AN INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN MARGIN OF THE GREAT PLAINS BECAUSE OF THESE HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION EVENTS. SNOW COVER. THIS IS A HUGE CONCERN BECAUSE THE SNOW COVER IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR EXAMPLE IS WHAT FEEDS THE RIVER THE PLATTE RIVER FOR EXAMPLE FLOWS ACROSS NEBRASKA IF WE CHANGE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT THEY’RE RECEIVING IN THE ROCKIES MORE MORE RAIN FALL AND LESS SNOW… SNOW MELTS SLOWLY, AND IT GRADUALLY FEEDS THE RIVERS ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN FALL, ON THE OTHER HAND, RUNS OFF VERY QUICKLY SO IF WE WANT SUSTAINED STREAM FLOW SURFACE WATER ACROSS THE STATE THE IDEA OF REDUCED SNOW PACK IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OTHER PLACES THAN THE ROCKIES IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN. AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE TREND THAT WE’VE SEEN SO FAR WE’VE SEEN THE REDUCTION IN SNOW PACK BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE PROJECTIONS OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE CENTURY WE’RE LOOKING AT A CONTINUE REDUCTION AGAIN INCREASING TEMPERATURES LESS LESS PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NOW, ONE OF THE THINGS WE’VE ALSO SEEN IS THE TREMENDOUS INCREASE IN IRRIGATION IN STATE OF NEBRASKA HAS ACTUALLY HAD A DAMPING AFFECT IN TERMS OF COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN OUR CLIMATE. SO IF IRRIGATION CONTINUES AS IS WE MIGHT SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE BUT THE CONCERN IS ABOUT THE SUSTAINABILITY OF OUR WATER RESOURCES UNDER SITUATIONS OF HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS AND MORE VARIABLE RAIN FALL LESS SNOW PACK IN THE WEST AND SO FORTH AND HOW THIS MIGHT AFFECT RE CHARGE OF GROUND WATER AND THEREFORE IN THE LONG RUN THE IMPACTS ON IRRIGATION POSSIBILITIES IN THE STATE OF NEBRASKA. SO IF WE LOOK AT THE MAP THAT LOOKS AT GROUND WATER LEVEL CHANGES IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 2012 AND 2013 AS A RESULT OF THE DROUGHT AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT OCCURRED YOU CAN SEE THAT WERE DECLINES OF ANY WHERE OF TWO TO FIFTEEN FEET SO WHAT IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR FOR A SECOND YEAR AND A THIRD YEAR AND SO ON SO ONCE AGAIN CONCERNS. SO WE’RE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL STRESS RELATED CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE OF NOT ONLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS DAYS INCREASING NUMBER OF WARM NIGHTS INCREASING EVAPORATION MORE EXTRACTION OF GROUND WATER RESOURCES AND REDUCED RECHARGE. SO ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION. TAKE AWAY POINTS: SO LET ME CONCLUDED FIRST OF ALL I’M GOING TO GIVE YOU FROM THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT THEY HAD A CHAPTER THAT FOCUSED ON THE GREAT PLAINS. AND SO I’M GOING TO GIVE YOU THE CONCLUSIONS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS CHAPTER WITH REGARD TO SOME OF THE CONCERNS OR THE KEY MESSAGES FOR THE GREAT PLAINS COMING FROM THIS ASSESSMENT. AGAIN THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT. WHICH INVOLVED OVER THREE HUNDRED SCIENTISTS FROM THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. SO THE FIRST ONE OF THESE IS RELATED TO RAISING TEMPERATURE AND MAYBE NEED TO READ FROM HERE CAUSE THIS IS A WEIRD ANGLE RAISING TEMPERATURES ARE LEADING TO INCREASED DEMAND FOR WATER AND ENERGY. CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS STRESSING NATURAL RESOURCES AND INCREASING COMPETITION FOR WATER AMONGST THESE VARIOUS COMMUNITIES A SECOND KEY MESSAGE WAS CHANGES IN THE CROP GROWTH CYCLES DUE TO WARMING WINTERS AND ALTERATIONS IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAIN FALL EVENTS. ONCE AGAIN IS GOING TO THESE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, AND ARE GOING TO REQUIRE CHANGES IN NEW AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES AND LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT PRACTICES. LANDSCAPE FRAGMINTATION RELATED TO THE ADAPTATION OF THEIR SPECIES AND THEIR ABILITY TO MOVE WITHIN THE REGION IS ANOTHER ONE OF A KEY MESSAGES ANOTHER ONE WAS COMMUNITIES THAT ARE ALREADY THE MOST VULNERABLE THE WEATHER IN CLIMATE EXTREMES ARE GOING TO BECOME MORE VULNERABLE IN THE FUTURE. AND FINALLY THE MAGNITUDE OF EXPECTED CHANGES WILL EXCEED THOSE EXPERIENCES IN THE LAST CENTURY EXISTING ADAPTATION PLANNING METHODS AND SO ON ARE INADEQUATE SO ONE OF THE CONCLUSIONS WITH REGARDS TO AGRICULTURE IS THE TYPES OF MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ARE VARIATIONS OF MANAGEMENT PRACTICES THAT WE’VE USED IN THE PAST TO ESSENTIALLY ADAPT TO WEATHER VARIABILTY WE EXPERIENCE IN NEBRASKA ALL TIME THAT THESE ARE GOING TO BE INADEQUATE BY THEMSELVES IT’S GOING REQUIRE THAT WE HAVE MORE INNOVATIVE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES, AND ALSO BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE CLIMATE AND HOW WE CAN INCORPORATE THESE CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS. SO ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF THE PROJECTED CHANGE; SO HERE ARE SOME CONCLUSIONS REGARDING THE NEBRASKA CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FIRST OF ALL CONSEQUENCES DEPENDS ON THE SENSITIVE OF KEY SECTORS, SO OBVIOUSLY DIFFERENT SECTORS ARE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF SENSITIVITY TO THESE KINDS OF CHANGES. THE ABILITY OF THESE SECTORS TO ADAPT AS THESE OCCUR SO HOW EASY IS IT GOING TO BE FOR DIFFERENT SECTORS TO ACTUALLY ADAPT TO THESE CHANGES HOW PROACTIVE ARE THESE SECTORS GOING TO BE TO THESE CHANGES AS THEY’RE OCCURRING THE AVAILABILITY OF GROUND WATER IS ANOTHER KEY VARIABLE HERE. IN TERMS OF RESPONSE TO INCREASING DEMAND FOR WATER AND MITIGATION MEASURES IN TERMS OF WHAT WE’RE GOING TO DO AS A GLOBAL SOCIETY, AS A NATIONAL SOCIETY, AND SO ON TO REDUCE GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. SO ANOTHER CONCLUSION WAS SLIGHT CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS PROJECTED INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN THE NUMBER OF HIGH TEMPERATURE STRESS DAYS WILL BE THE CRITICAL FACTOR AFFECTING THE IMPACT AND THE ABILITY OF VARIOUS SECTORS TO ADAPT TO THIS CHANGING CLIMATE. SOME KEY TAKE AWAY MESSAGES. DRAMATIC CHANGES IN CLIMATE ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL SCALES AND ONE OF OUR BIG CONCERNS IS HOW RAPIDLY THESE CHANGES ARE OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THE FUTURE. HUMAN ACTIVITIES ARE THE DRIVERS OF THIS CHANGE PROJECTION OF FUTURE CHANGES REPRESENT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE CLIMATE SCIENCES. AND SO WE OBVIOUSLY CONTINUED TO INCREASE OUR KNOWLEDGE OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM AND SO FORTH AND AT THAT INFORMATION IS IMPORTANT AND THE CONCERN ABOUT SURPRISES THINGS WE DON’T UNDERSTAND YET THAT MIGHT CAUSE US TO BE OFF IN TERMS OF THE PROJECTIONS EITHER THE PROJECTIONS BEING TOO LOW OR POSSIBLY TOO HIGH. UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATE WITH FUTURE CHANGES ARE LARGELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES THESE IN GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SO AGAIN THE RANGE OF SCENARIOS ARE BEING LOOKED AT IN ORDER TO GET AN IDEA ABOUT THE RANGE OF CHANGES PROJECTED CHANGES THAT ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AND OBVIOUSLY WE MUST ADAPT TO CURRENT AND PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND HOPEFULLY MITiGATE AS MUCH OF FUTURE WARMING AS POSSIBLE BY REDUCING THESE GREEN HOUSE GASES CURRENT PROECTED CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE POSITIVE BENEFITS FOR SOME NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES FOR OTHERS. SO USUALLY WHEN WE TALK ABOUT NATURAL HAZARDS OCCURING DROUGHT FOR EXAMPLE WHICH I’VE WORKED IN A LOT WE TALK ABOUT WINNERS AND LOSERS. I THINK WITH CLIMATE CHANGE, THERE ARE GOING TO BE WINNERS AND LOSERS PROBABLY MORE LOSERS THAN WINNERS, BUT THIS IS GOING TO VARY ON A REGIONAL BASES IF YOU LOOK AT THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THEY ARE PROJECTED TO BECOME WARMER MORE PRECIPITATION THERE ARE SOME ADVANTAGES THAT THEY CAN TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FOR THEIR FUTURE PLANNING REGARDING AGRICULTURAL AND OTHER THINGS. AND A VERY IMPORTANT POINT IS THAT EARLY ADAPTORS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO COPE WITH THE CHANGES SO THE SOONER THAT VARIOUS SECTORS CAN BEGIN TO INCORPORATE THESE CHANGES THAT WE ARE SEEING AND THAT ARE PROJECTED INTO THE FUTURE THE SOONER THEY CAN INCORPORATED THOSE IN THEIR MANAGEMENT THE BETTER ABLE THEY ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO DEAL WITH THOSE PROJECTED CHANGES, SO YOU DON’T WANT TO WAIT. SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. CHANGES IN FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY OF EXTREME EVENTS WILL CONTINUES RESULTING IN ESCALATING SOCIAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND ECONOMIC COSTS IMBEDDED IN ALL CHALLENGES ARE OPPORTUNITIES SO WE REALLY NEED TO BE LOOKING AT HOW WE CAN IMPROVE THE RESILIENCE OF THESE SECTORS, OF THESE VARIOUS SECTORS THAT I TALKED ABOUT AND OTHER SECTORS THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS STUDY AS WELL AND A FINAL POINT IS ACTION NOW IS MORE COST EFFECTIVE IN REACTION LATER. SO UNDERSTANDING, DEVELOPING AWARENESS OF THESE CHANGES, UNDERSTANDING THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND NOT DENYING THAT THIS SCIENCE EXISITS AND WHAT IS TRYING TO TELL US IS NOT THE PATH WE NEED TO GO DOWN WE REALLY NEED TO ADOPT ACTION ORIENTED STRATEGIES TO ADAPT TO THIS CHANGING CLIMATE, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FINDING WAYS TO REDUCE OUR CARBON EMISSIONS. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION. WE WILL NOW HAVE A PANEL DISCUSSION WHICH RONNIE IS GOING TO LEAD. THANK YOU VERY MUCH.WELL WE NOW WILL ASK THE OTHER THREE COAUTHORS OF THE REPORT TO JOIN DR. WILHITE AT THE TABLE. AND AS I SAID EARLIER, IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO ADDRESS TO THEM PLEASE CIRCULATE IT TO THE END OF YOUR AISLE EITHER WAY SO IF YOU ARE ON THIS SIDE, GO THAT WAY. IF YOU ARE ON THIS SIDE, GO THIS WAY. AND THOSE WILL BE COLLECTED AND WE WILL GET STARTED WITH SOME DISCUSSION. SO AS WE ARE WAITING ON THOSE FIRST QUESTIONS TO COME IN, I WOULD JUST POINT OUT TO YOU AS DON SAID, THE HARD COPY, THE PRINTED COPY OF THE REPORT, WE HAVE 500 COPIES AVAILABLE HERE TODAY. THAT YOU CAN PICK UP ON YOUR WAY OUT OF THE VENUE. AND IT ALSO WILL BE AVAILABLE IN .PDF ELECTRONIC FORMAT AS HE INDICATED ONLINE. SO WE HOPE IF YOU WANT A COPY TODAY THAT YOU CAN GET ONE AND TAKE IT WITH YOU. I ALSO WILL POINT OUT TO YOU THAT WE DIDN’T SAY MUCH AT THE BEGINNING ABOUT THIS PARTICULAR VENUE. IT’S A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT FOR A LIVESTOCK GUY LIKE ME TO BE STANDING ON THE FLOOR OF A FORMER EXHIBITION, LIVESTOCK EXHIBITION BUILDING HAVING AN EVENT LIKE THIS. BUT I HOPE YOU WILL AGREE WITH ME THAT THE TRANSFORMATION OF THIS FACILITY INTO A NEW CONFERENCE FACILITY AVAILABLE FOR THE PUBLIC HERE AT INNOVATION CAMPUS HAS BEEN A FABULOUS TRANSFORMATION. WE HAVE CONSTRUCTION GOING ON AROUND US AS YOU SEE IN THE FIST PHASE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF INNOVATION CAMPUS. BUT WE REALLY APPRECIATE THE UNL ALUMNI ASSOCIATION WHO IS MANAGING THIS FACILITY THIS CONFERENCE FACILITY AND THEIR HOSPITALITY AND HOSTING US HERE TODAY. SO, QUESTIONS, DO WE HAVE QUESTIONS FROM THE AUDIENCE? WE WILL JUST GO STRAIGHT WITH A GOOD ONE RIGHT FROM THE START. DON: OK. BOB’S GOING TO ANSWER THAT ONE. RONNIE: SO THESE FOLKS TOLD ME THEY ARE GOING TO DIVVY HOW THEY ARE GOING TO ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS WHOEVER WANTS TO TAKE THESE ON PLEASE DO SO. RONNIE GREEN: DO FACULTY MEMBERS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA – LINCOLN FACE FUNDING PRESSURES FROM OUTSIDE FUNDERS TO DOWNPLAY THE AFFECTS OF HUMAN INFLUENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE? I TOLD YOU WERE WERE STARTING WITH ONE!BOB OGLESBY: WE DON’T FEEL ANY PRESSURES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. OKAY? THE FUNDING, I DON’T KNOW WHERE THIS CONFUSIONS COMES FROM, THAT WE HAVE TO SAY CERTAIN THINGS OR OUR FUNDING DEPENDS ON IT THAT’S SHOWS TOTAL LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF HOW THE FUNDING PROCESS WORKS. NO. OUR FUNDING IN NOW WAY, SHAPE, OR FORM DEPENDS ON WHICH SIDE OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE PICTURE WE FALL ON. RONNIE: IS THAT THE PREVAILING OPINION OF THE GROUP? DON WILHITE: YES. RONNIE GREEN: ALRIGHT. RONNIE GREEN: SECOND QUESTIONS:WHAT CHANGES ARE NEEDED IN AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES AND WHO WILL OR WHICH AGENCY WILL COORDINATE THEM? DON WILHITE: I’LL TAKE A SHOT AT THAT ONE, BECAUSE I AM IN THE INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES. WHILE I’M NOT NECESSARILY AN AGRICULTURAL SCIENTIST I THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENT ORGANIZATIONS THAT NEED TO BECOME INVOLVED IN THIS. OBVIOUSLY WE HAVE STATE AGENCIES THAT NEED TO BECOME INVOLVED. I THINK ABOUT THE NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE BUT ALSO THE DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES. LOOKING AT A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WATER MANAGEMENT ISSUES IN THE STATE AND SO FORTH. THE ALLOCATIONS AND HOW CLIMATE CHANGE MAY AFFECT THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER IN THE FUTURE. THE UNIVERSITY, OBVIOUSLY HAS TO PLAY, I THINK A TREMENDOUS ROLE IN THIS PROCESS. BOTH IN TERMS OF EDUCATING OUR STUDENTS AND IT’S NOT JUST THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA, IT’S ALL EDUCATION AND INSTITUTIONS AND EVEN K TO 12 EDUCATING OUR STUDENTS ABOUT THIS ISSUE AND THROUGH ORGANIZATIONS LIKE THE EXTENSION SERVICE FOR EXAMPLE EXTENSION SERVICE WITHIN I.A.N.R. HAS ALREADY LAUNCHED A NEW INITIATIVE TO DEVELOP A NEW ACTION PLAN FOCUSING ON CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCY AND SO FOR THOSE FACULTY THAT HAVE EXTENSION APPOINTMENTS I ENCOURAGE THEM TO BECOME AWARE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND TO BECOME INVOLVED IN IT AND HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEW ACTIVITY. SO THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF PLAYERS INCLUDING PLAYERS OBVIOUSLY IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR. RONNIE GREEN: NOW THERE ARE A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS IN THE STACK THAT RELATE TO THIS SO I WILL TRY TO BLEND THEM TOGETHER. WHAT RESEARCH AND OUTREACH IS THE UNIVERSITY DOING TO HELP NEBRASKANS REDUCE GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN AGRICULTURE, ELECTRIC UTLITITIES, AND TRANSPORTATION RELATED, WHAT SPECIFICALLY NEEDS TO CHANGE IN NEBRASKA TO BRING DOWN GREEN HOUSE GASES EMISSIONS? THAT KIND OF A THREAD OF A QUESTION. DON WILHITE: THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE IN THE AUDIENCE THAT MIGHT BE BETTER PREPARED TO DEAL WITH THAT, I THINK THROUGH THE AGRICULTURE RESEARCH DIVISION THERE’S A LOT OF RESEARCH THAT’S GOING ON. LOOKING AT REDUCING THE CARBON FOOTPRINT OF AGRICULTURE IN GENERAL BUT ALSO FOR THE OTHER OF FOR THE OTHER SECTORS YOU’LL SEE IN THE REPORT THERE IS A PLOT THAT SHOWS FOR THE PRINCIPAL SECTORS IN NEBRASKA WHAT THE TREND OF GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST 20 OR 30 YEARS. AND YOU’LL SEE THAT ALL OF THESE SECTORS HAVE HAD AN INCREASE AND SO ALL OF THOSE SECTORS NEED TO TAKE PART IN THIS PROCESS OF LOOKING AT HOW TO REDUCE OUR GREEN HOUSE, OR OUR CARBON FOOTPRINT BOB OGLESBY: I JUST WANT TO REMIND THAT THIS IS WHY WE SOLICITED ALL OF THE EXPERT COMMENTARIES FOR THE REPORT. WE ARE BASICALLY EXPERTS ON CLIMATE SCIENCE. WE CAN’T BE EXPERTS ON EVERY AREA THAT’S IMPACTED BY THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE. THAT’S WHAT THE COMMENTARIES ARE FOR. CLINT ROWE: ALSO, DON POINTED OUT THE GRAPH WHICH SHOWS THE TRENDS IN CO2 EMISSIONS IN VARIOUS SECTORS. AND WE ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER THE MAGNITUDE OF EACH OF THE SECTORS AND THE LARGEST SECTORS ARE NOT NECESSARILY AGRICULTURE, THEY ARE PRODUCTION THEY ARE ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND TRANSPORTATION ARE THE TWO BIGGEST SECTORS. AND SO THERE ARE PEOPLE I KNOW IN THE COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT ARE WORKING ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, AND SO FORTH. MICROPHONE ISSUES… I’LL JUST TALK LOUD. DEB BATHKE: I THINK TO EXPAND ON WHAT CLINT SAID, IN TERMS OF THERE ARE PEOPLE IN OTHER COLLEGES WE HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF EXPERTISE AT THE UNIVERSITY AND IT NOT JUST THE HARD SCIENCES LIKE CLIMATOLOGY, OR ENGINEERING, OR EVEN AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE CLIMATE CHANGE IS MULTIDISCIPLINARY. AND WHAT WE’RE GOING TO NEED ALL OF THE RESOURCES THAT WE HAVE AT THE UNIVERSITY WE ALSO NEED THE SOCIAL SCIENCITISTS AND THE PSYCHOLOGISTS TO HELP BRING PEOPLE TOGETHER TO HELP US HAVE THOSE CONVERSATIONS. TO KEEP THOSE CONVERSATIONS ON A POSITIVE SOLUTION ORIENTED FOCUS RATHER THAN A DOOM AND GLOOM TYPE OF THING. SO I GUESS I CHALLENGE ALL OF YOU TO THINK MORE BROADLY ABOUT FINDING THE SOLUTIONS AND ALL OF THE TALENT THAT WE HAVE IN THIS ROOM AND IN THIS STATE AND AMONG OUR STUDENTS. DON WILHITE: I CAN’T EMPHASIS ENOUGH THE IMPORTANCE OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES TO BE INVOLVED IN THIS DISCUSSION. FOR PRECISELY THE REASON THAT DEBORAH WAS TALKING ABOUT. WHEN WE LOOK AT THESE FUTURE EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, WE’RE LOOKING AT HOW WE CAN CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR. AND GET PEOPLE TO VALUE THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TODAY AND FOR THE FUTURE AND PHYSICAL SCIENTISTS AS ONE GROUP, YOU KNOW WE DON’T NECESSARILY UNDERSTAND HUMAN BEHAVIOR. BUT THAT’S THE ROLE OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES. SO THEY PLAY A CRITICALLY IMPORTANT ROLE IN THIS PROCESS OF TRYING TO MOVE NOT JUST THIS COUNTRY FORWARD BUT WORLD FORWARD ON THIS ISSUE. RONNIE GREEN: OKAY, THE NEXT QUESTIONS: DOES IT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE TO US IN NEBRASKA IN REDUCING GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, OR OTHER WAYS TO MITIGATE, IF INDIA AND CHINA DON’T DO THE SAME? DON WILHITE: WELL, THE REALITY IS THAT CHINA’S REALLY HAVING SOME VARIOUS, SERIOUS DISCUSSIONS RIGHT NOW ABOUT REDUCTION OF CARBON EMISSIONS. AND WE’LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THOSE PLAY OUT. SO THEY ARE BEGINNING TO STEP UP TO THIS PROCESS. I MEAN, I FEEL THE UNITED STATES AS A TECHNOLOGICAL LEADER THAT WE’VE BEEN FOR MANY MANY YEARS THAT WE NEED TO BE PUTTING OUR BEST FOOT FORWARD ON THIS. AND YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT FACT THAT WE’VE CREATED A LOT OF THIS PROBLEM IF YOU LOOK AT THIS ENERGY DEPENDENCE OF THE COUNTRY AND HOW MUCH ENERGY WE USE WE’VE HELPED CREATE THE PROBLEM THAT WE SEE AND OBVIOUSLY THIS IS GOING TO BE PERPETUATED BY OTHER COUNTRIES LIKE INDIA AND CHINA. BOB OGLESBY: YA, I THOUGHT THAT BASICALLY WE IN THE UNITED STATES WE USED TO THINK OF OURSELVES AS LEADERS LEADERS FOR THE WORLD. WAITING TO SEE HOW OTHER COUNTRIES ACT IS NOT TALKING A LEADERSHIP ROLE. CLINT ROWE: EXACTLY AND WHILE CHINA HAS PASSED US IN TOTAL EMISSIONS, WE ARE STILL THE LEADER IN PER CAPITA EMISSIONS. AND SO WE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND, THAT WE ALL WANT LONG WAY TO GO AND A BIG LEADERSHIP ROLE TO FILL. AND THERE ARE AS DON POINTED OUT IN THE TALK, THERE ARE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES THAT ARE GOING TO GO MISSING, IF WE DON’T TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES TO ADOPT MEANS THAT WE COULD LICENSE THOSE TECHNOLOGIES TO OTHER COUNTRIES, TO OTHER ADOPTERS, AND MAKE MONEY ON THE DEAL, NOT JUST SPEND MONEY. DEB BATHKE: AND PRODUCE SOME OF THOSE TECHNOLOGIES OF ESTATE, TOO. RONNIE GREEN: SO, FIRST OF ALL, THANK YOU FOR ALL OF THESE GREAT QUESTIONS, BECAUSE THERE’S, AS YOU CAN SEE, QUITE A STACK OF THEM THAT HAVE COME IN AND THANKFULLY SOME OF THEM ARE IN BUCKETS THAT ARE SOMEWHAT RELATED. THIS NEXT ONE HAS, MAYBE A LITTLE PHILOSOPHICAL APPROACH TO IT. BUT I THINK IT’S A GOOD QUESTION FOR YOU. DO YOU BELIEVE WE, EI. HUMANITY, CAN FIX THIS GLOBAL PROBLEM, OR IS IT TOO LATE, AND WE MUST JUST PREPARE TO ADAPT INSTEAD OF PREVENT, DO WE HAVE THE GLOBAL POLITICAL WILL AND INSTRUMENTS IN ORDER MAKE CHANGE?WHO WANTS THAT ONE? BOB OGLESBY: THAT’S A RHETORICAL QUESTION. WE CAN’T ANSWER THAT FOR YOU. IN FACT, THE PEOPLE IN THIS ROOM CAN’T ANSWER THAT THE PEOPLE OF THE GLOBE AS A WHOLE HAS TO ANSWER THAT. DO WE HAVE THE WILL DO WE NOT HAVE THE WILL? I MEAN, WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER. WE ALL LIVE ON THIS PLANET TOGETHER CLINT ROWE: AND THIS IS THE PLACE WHERE THE UNITED STATES COULD PROVIDE STRONG LEADERSHIP. RATHER THAN BEING A RELUCTANT IF AT ALL FOLLOWER. RATHER THAN WAITING FOR SOMEBODY ELSE IF WE TAKE A LEADERSHIP ROLE, I THINK WE COULD PROVIDE SOME POLITICAL BACKBONE TO THE WHOLE WORLD. DEB BATHKE: I THINK THE SAME GOES FOR THE STATE, TOO I MEAN THE STATE CAN BE A LEADER WITHIN A UNITED STATES. RONNIE GREEN: OKAY. THIS IS A TECHNICAL QUESTION. SO DON, I’LL THROW IT TO YOU. WHAT IS MEANT BY PLANT HARDINESS? DON WILHITE: PLANT HARDINESS WELL WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ABILITY OF PLANTS ESSENTIALLY SUSTAIN COLD TEMPERATURES SO FORTH AND SURVIVE THAT. SO WHEN WE TALK ABOUT PLANT HARDINESS ZONES MANY OF YOU HAVE GARDENS WHEN YOU PLANT SEEDS YOU LOOK AT THE BACK OF THE SEED PACKET AND YOU SEE WHETHER OR NOT THE SEED YOU’RE GOING TO PLANT IS ADAPTED TO LIVE IN THIS CLIMATE. AND OBVIOUSLY, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO BE PLANTING PALM TREES IN YOUR BACKYARD BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT HARDY IN OUR PARTICULAR CLIMATE.RONNIE GREEN: THIS NEXT QUESTIONS, THERE ARE SEVERAL IN HEAR THAT RELATE TO THIS. INSURANCE WAS ADDED AS AN IMPACTED SECTOR. I KNOW DON YOU HAD MENTIONED IN SOME EARLIER CONVERSATIONS THE LAST FEW DAYS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY IN NEBRASKA CERTAINLY IS PART OF REASON FOR THAT. PLEASE TOUCH ON THE FINDINGS, FOR EXAMPLE, WHAT DID THAT COMMENTARY SAY, ANY SUMMARY COMMENTS THERE? DON WILHITE: WELL, THE OTHER REASON I CHOSE TO INCLUDE THAT EVEN THOUGH IT WASN’T ONE OF THE SECTORS THAT WERE ADDRESSED IN THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT, IS BECAUSE WE HAVE, ADAM ARE YOU IN THE AUDIENCE? OR DID YOU ASK THAT QUESTION? ADAM LISKA? THERE’S ADAM, IS THAT YOUR QUESTION, ADAM?ADAM HAS BEEN LOOKING AT THE LINKAGE BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND INSURANCE. AND MANY OF YOU MAY KNOW THAT THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY IS REALLY PROBABLY THE LARGEST INDUSTRY IN THE WORLD. INCREDIBLE REVENUES ASSOCIATED WITH INSURANCE AND SO I SHOWED A GRAPH THAT LOOKED AT THE FREQUENCY OF NATURAL DISASTERS AND THE INCREASING FREQUENCY OF NATURAL DISASTERS. THIS IS OF MAJOR CONCERN. TO THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY AND THAT PARTICULAR GRAPH WAS FROM MUNICH REINSURANCE WHICH IS THE LARGEST RE INSURANCE FIRM SO THEY INSURE THE INSURANCE COMPANIES AND THEY ARE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT INCREASING NUMBER OF EXTREME EVENTS AND HOW THIS IS IMPACTING THE INSURANCE SECTOR AND SO IT’S IMPORTANT TO NEBRASKA, WHICH IS WHY I INCLUDED IT IN THE REPORT BECAUSE WE HAVE A LOT OF INSURANCE COMPANIES THAT ARE BASED HERE. AND SO, THIS IS AN IMPORTANT SECTOR FOR NEBRASKA AND SO I THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH WHILE AND THIS IS A FUTURE STUDY AREA, I THINK, FOR ADAM AND SOME OF HIS STUDENTS. AND ALSO FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE SCIENCE STUDENTS, OR CLIMATE SCIENCE FACULTY IN THE SCHOOL OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND DEPARTMENT OF EARTH AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES. ANYBODY ELSE? RONNIE GREEN: THIS NEXT ONE, AGAIN, I AM TRYING TO CORRELATE COME OF THESE THAT ARE ALIKE, SO THERE ARE SEVERAL ON THIS TOPIC AS WELL. AGRICULTURE IS BOTH A HUGE SOURCE AND SINK FOR CARBON, WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE FOR NEBRASKA TO CAPITALIZE ON THE SINK-SIDE? DON WILHITE: WELL, I’LL START ON THAT AND IF YOU GUYS WANT TO ADD I MEAN, I THINK THERE ARE A NUMBER OF RESEARCH PROGRAMS THAT ARE GOING ON THAT ARE LOOKING AT THAT ISSUES OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND ROLE THAT AGRICULTURE CAN PLAY. BUT ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I WOULD SAY IS THAT A COUPLE OF DECADES AGO WHEN A LOT OF DISCUSSION STARTED ABOUT ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN TERMS OF GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SO ON A LOT OF THOSE IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR JUST WALK AWAY FROM THE TABLE. INSTEAD OF BEING AT THE TABLE. I THINK THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR NOW IS GOING BACK TO THE TABLE WHICH IS A VERY POSITIVE THING BECAUSE AGRICULTURE IS AN IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTOR BUT ALSO A MITIGATING INDUSTRY TO THIS PARTICULAR ISSUE. AND SO AGRICULTURE NEEDS TO BE RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DISCUSSION ABOUT THIS ISSUE IN THE FUTURE. ANYONE ELSE? BOB OGELSBY: I’M NO EXPERT, BUT I DO TALK TO PEOPLE WHO ARE IN THIS AREA AND AS I UNDERSTAND IT, THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUES WOULD BE HOW MUCH NET CARBON IS ACTUALLY STORED IN THE SOIL AS A RESULT OF THE AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES RECOGNIZING THAT VEGETATION CYCLES CARBON DIOXIDE ON AN ANNUAL BASIS AT LEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDES. IN SUMMER, STRONG CO2 DOWN BUT IN WINTER, WHEN THE LEAVES DIE IT GIVES US THE CARBON DIOXIDE BACK. FURTHERMORE, IT’S ALSO NOT CLEAR WHAT THE LONG TERM IMPLICATIONS OF STORING ADDITIONAL CARBON IN THE SOIL WILL BE WITH THE OVERALL PRODUCTIVITY OF THAT SOIL. THE JURY IS STILL OUT, I DON’T THINK THE SOIL SCIENTISTS REALLY KNOW THAT THAT WELL. RONNIE GREEN: THERE ARE A WHOLE THREAD OF QUESTIONS HERE THAT RELATE TO THE NEXT STEPS. AND PARTICULARLY THE NEXT STEPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE USE OF THE REPORT FOR POLICY FOR USE BY GOVERNMENT, SO THINGS LIKE, NOW THAT WE HAVE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE SCIENCE HOW DO WE GET THE POLICY MAKERS ENGAGED, TAKE ACTIONS IN THE STATE, SO FORTH? SO, COMMENTS ON THAT THREAD OF HOPEFUL USE OF THE REPORT. DON WILHITE: YA, I MEAN I THINK THAT THE REPORT PROVIDES A FOUNDATION IN TERMS OF OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE CLIMATE SCIENCE, CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AND IT’S IMPLICATIONS FOR NEBRASKA I THINK THE COMMENTARIES THAT WERE WRITTEN BY THE TWELVE DIFFERENT INDIVIDUALS, SOME OF THEM, THE MAJORITY OF THEM WERE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA FACULTY. BUT I ALSO ASKED FOR COMMENTARIES FROM PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF THE UNIVERSITY SO SOME STATE AGENCY PERSONNEL ARE INVOLVED IN THOSE WE ALSO HAVE MILO MUMGAARD, MILO DO YOU HAPPEN TO BE HERE? MILO IS IN THE BACK, HE’S THE SUSTAINABILITY COORDINATOR FOR MAYOR BEUTLER THE CITY OF LINCOLN IS DOING SOME OUTSTANDING THINGS ALREADY. TERMS OF ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE. AND LOOKING AT MITIGATING THE AMOUNT OF CARBON THAT WE ARE RELEASING. SO I THINK THE SECTOR COMMENTARIES PROVIDE A STARTING POINT THE REPORT ITSELF OBVIOUSLY PROVIDES A STARTING POINT. BUT I THINK THE NEXT STEP IS FOR VARIOUS GROUPS AROUND THE STATE, AND I KNOW THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WATCH PARTIES, THAT ARE GOING ON NOW, AND THERE ARE GOING TO BE MORE. THESE VARIOUS COMMUNITY GROUPS OF VARIOUS GROUPS ARE REALLY INTERESTED IN THIS PARTICULAR ISSUE. NEED TO BE COMMUNICATING. TO THEIR ELECTED OFFICIALS. AND ASKING THEM, WHAT IS YOUR POSITION ON THIS? FOR EXAMPLE, HAS EITHER GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE BEEN ASKED THAT QUESTION. AND IF SO, WHAT WAS THEIR RESPONSE? I MEAN, I THINK WE NEED TO BE PROBING OUR STATE LEGISLATORS OUR, OBVIOUSLY OUR ELECTED OFFICIALS IN WASHINGTON D.C. AND ALSO OUR GOVERNOR OUR FUTURE GOVERNOR AND SO ON ON THIS ISSUE. SO STATE AGENCIES, I THINK, ARE GOING TO PLAY A HUGE ROLE BUT IN ORDER TO INFLUENCE, I THINK, THE PATTERNS OF WHAT STATE AGENCIES WILL DO WITH THIS REPORT I THINK YOU HAVE TO GET TO THE GOVERNOR. CLINT ROWE: WHEN RONNIE ASKED THAT QUESTIONS, OR WHOEVER ASKED THAT QUESTION,’ AND RONNIE READ IT I HAD A ONE WORD ANSWER AND THEN DEB ACTUALLY SAID SHE HAD THE SAME ONE-WORD ANSWER VOTE AS DON SAID, TALK TO THE PEOPLE WHO WANT TO BE YOUR ELECTED OFFICIALS AND VOTE FOR THE ONES THAT ARE GOING TO WORK TO GUIDE THE STATE, AND THE COUNTRY IN THAT DIRECTION. DEB BATHKE: AND IF YOU CAN’T TALK TO THEM, LOOK AT THEIR VOTING RECORDS ONLINE. THEY’RE ALL AVAILABLE RONNIE GREEN: AND I’LL JUST ADD, ONE COMMENT TO WHAT THE AUTHORS HAVE SAID. THE GENESIS OF THIS REPORT WAS ACTUALLY BECAUSE THE LEGISLATURE OF THE STATE OF NEBRASKA IN A PREVIOUS SESSION ASKED FOR A STUDY OF THIS AREA TO BE DONE, AND SOME OF YOU WILL REMEMBER THE DEBATE ABOUT THAT OVER RECENT MONTHS. AND WE FELT IT WAS VERY IMPORTANT TO CONTRIBUTE TO THAT AREA IN WHAT WAY WE COULD SO WE OFFERED TO DO THE REPORT IN THE WAY THAT IT’S BEEN DONE. SO THAT’S CERTAINLY THE INTENT AND HOPE OF THE USE OF THE REPORT IS THAT IT WILL BE INFORMATIVE FOR STATE AND LOCAL POLICY MAKERS AS THEY THINK ABOUT ADAPTATION IN THESE AREAS. THIS NEXT KIND OF FOCAL AREA OF QUESTIONS, AND THERE ARE ABOUT 8 OR 9 OF THEM, THAT RELATE TO IT IT RELATES TO THE WATER AREA AND YOU TALKED ABOUT, DON IN THE SUMMARY, SOME IMPLICATIONS AROUND SNOW PACKS, SOME IMPLICATIONS AROUND GROUND WATER, SURFACE WATER, RAIN EVENTS, SNOW EVENTS, AND SO FORTH. AND THE QUESTIONS ALL RELATE TO CONCERN ABOUT THE OGALLALA AQUIFER THINGS LIKE DO WE EXPECT TO SEE OR ARE YOU PREDICTING TO SEE THE CHANGES IN THE AQUIFER IN NEBRASKA SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. PERHAPS, FURTHER SOUTH ALREADY IN THOSE PARTS OF THE AQUIFER ANY FURTHER ELABORATION ON THAT AREA? GROUND WATER RESOURCES IN NEBRASKA? BOB OBLESBY: IT WAS VERY SCARY WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LOOP RIVER DURING THE SUMMER OF 2012. HISTORICALLY THE RIVER COMES OUT OF THE SANDHILLS MAINTAIN A PRETTY CONSTANT FLOW, EVEN DURING SUMMER BECAUSE THEY ARE SO WELL BUFFERED BY THE AQUIFER. UNFORTUNATLEY WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LOOP RIVER IN 2012 WAS THAT THE LOOP ALMOST BEGAN TO LOOK LIKE THE PLATTE RIVER DOES TYPICALLY IN SUMMER THAT COULD BE A HEART BREAKER OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE OGALLALA AQUIFER CONTINUES TO BE DEPLETED DON WILHITE: I MIGHT ADD, I MEAN, WE HAVE A TREMENDOUS VEHICLE IN THIS STATE TO MANAGE THAT AQUIFER IN THE NATURAL RESOURCE DISTRICTS. AND I THINK THEY’VE DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB OF DOING THAT TO DATE BUT THEY NEEDED BE LOOKING AT THIS KIND OF INFORMATION. IF THEY ARE CHARGED WITH THE MANAGEMENT OF OUR GROUND WATER RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE AND THEY’RE NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF THOSE AQUIFERS UNDER PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES THEN WE’VE GOT A PROBLEM. AND SO THE NATURAL RESOURCES DISTRICTS REALLY NEED TO TAKE A LEADING ROLE IN THIS BECAUSE WE DON’T WANT TO GO DOWN THE PATH OF THE STATES TO OUR SOUTH AND THERE’S REALLY NO REASON FOR US TO DO THIS IF WE PROPERLY MANAGED THAT RESOURCE AND ADAPT TO THE CHANGES AS WE SEE THEM. RONNIE GREEN: ANY OTHER COMMENTS? A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS IN THIS LINE. U.S. MILITARY WAS NOT CONSULTANT AS A KEY SECTOR OR EXPERT IN THE LIST THAT THE REPORT PROVIDED PLEASE DISCUSS WHAT YOU KNOW ABOUT MILITARY PLANNING AROUND CLIMATE CHANGE, IF YOU HAVE ANY COMMENTS THERE. AND A RELATED QUESTION WHAT ABOUT FIRST RESPONDERS IN THE PUBLIC FOR EXAMPLE NATIONAL GUARD THE RED CROSS, ETC. DON WILHITE: WELL LET ME ADDRESS PERSPECTIVE OF THE MILIARTY FIRST I WILL TELL YOU THAT ON OCTOBER 30TH IN THE CITY CAMPUS UNION THERE’S GOING TO BE LECTURE ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN NATIONAL SECURITY BY DAVID TITLEY WHO IS A RETIRED, REAR ADMIIRAL FROM U. S. NAVY WHO’S CURRENTLY ON THE FACULTY OF PENN STATE UNIVERSITY. SO AGAIN, HE’S GOING TO TALK ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATIONAL SECURITY I’LL ALSO TELL YOU THAT RECENTLY MANY OF YOU ARE FAMILIAR WITH THE GENERAL ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE. THE GENERAL ACCOUNTABILTY OFFICE IS REQUESTED BY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS TO DO STUDIES ON A WIDE RANGE OF DIFFERENT TOPICS. THEY WERE RECENTLY ASKED TO DO A STUDY ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE. ON THE VULNERABILITY OF U. S. MILITARY BASES AROUND WORLD OF WHICH THEIR ARE MANY. THEY PRODUCED A REPORT THAT INDICATED THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE SIGNIFICANT ADAPTATIONS MEASURES TAKEN FOR MANY OF THESE FACILITIES INCLUDING THINGS LIKE THE NAVAL BASES IN NORTH FORK, VIRGINIA FROM SEA LEVEL RISE. I’LL ALSO TELL YOU THAT THE U. S. CONGRESS IN PASSING THE MILITARY BUDGET FOR DEFENSE DEPARTMENT PRECLUDED THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT FOR SPENDING ANY OF THOSE FUNDS ON ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE. WE HAVE A HUGE DISCONNECT ON THIS ISSUE AND THE WAY TO ADDRESS THAT AGAIN IS THROUGH VOTING AND TO FINDING OUT WHAT YOUR ELECTED OFFICIALS ARE DOING OR NOT DOING TO DEAL WITH THIS PARTICULAR ISSUE. OTHER COMMENTS? OKAY. RONNIE GREEN: THIS NEXT ONE EITHER CAME FROM A REALLY GOOD STUDENT OR SOMEBODY’S PROFESSOR. ONE OF THE TWO. THE QUESTION IS A TECHNICAL ONE, RELATED TO THE CURVES THAT YOU SHOW IN THE REPORT FOR CO2 EMISSIONS, GREEN HOUSE GAS ACCUMULATIONS, THOSE TYPES OF CURVES. WHETHER THEY ARE IN FACT LINEAR OR QUADRATIC DON WILHITE: HIT IT BOB OR CLINT. BOB OGLESBY: QUADRATIC CLINT ROWE: DEFINITELY NON LINEAR. RONNIE GREEN: AND THE SECOND QUESTION ON THAT KIND OF VEIN, IS BY FOCUSING ON THE LATE 1800’S, AS A BASELINE, AND I THINK THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INFERENCES IN THE REPORT, SINCE 1895, SINCE THE LATE 1800’S ARE YOU CHERRY PICKING THE DATA? CLINT ROWE: NO. THAT’S JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE WIDE SPREAD OBSERVATIONAL RECORD OF THE UNITED STATES. AND MOSTLY WORLD-WIDE AS WELL. BUT WE DIDN’T HAVE REALLY GOOD WIDE-SPREAD OBSERVATIONS PRIOR TO THAT TIME, SO WE ARE GOING BACK AS FAR AS WE CAN IN THE INSTRUMENTAL RECORD. BOB OGLESBY: CHERRY PICKING THE DATA WOULD INVOLVE TAKING A CERTAIN SEGMENT OF THAT DATA. OKAY? SO, LIKE, I’M ONLY GOING TO LOOK AT FROM 1998 THROUGH 2008. I’M GOING TO CHERRY PICK THAT DATA BECAUSE THOSE TEN YEARS DON’T SEEM TO SHOW AS MUCH WARMING AS THE TEN BEFORE OR THE TEN YEARS AFTER. THAT IS CHERRY PICKING YOUR DATA. WE LOOK AT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE DATA THAT WE HAVE. IF WE HAD DATA THAT WENT BACK SEVERAL HUNDRED YEARS, WE WOULD BE USING IT. UNFORTUNATELY, WE SIMPLY DO NOT. RONNIE GREEN: AND THERE ARE A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS THAT ARE ALONG THE THEME OF RELATING INFORMATION ON THIS TOPIC. SO SO, WHO ARE THE BEST MESSENGERS TO RELATE INFORMATION ON THIS TOPIC. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS LIKE THAT. AND THIS ONE IS PROBABLY MORE POINTED: HOW DO YOU ADDRESS THE GAPS IN SCIENCE LITERACY AND PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING ON THE ISSUES AS COMPLEX AS THIS FOR EXAMPLE, PEOPLE WHO TRUST THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE BUT DON’T TRUST THE SCIENCE OF BIOTECHNOLOGY AND VICE VERSA. ANY COMMENTS THERE? DON WILHITE: INTERESTING QUESTIONS RONNIE GREEN: IT’S AN INTERESTING CONUNDRUM BOB OGLESBY: I WISH I KNEW. DON WILHITE: WELL, IT’S CERTAINLY A DANGEROUS TREND IN THIS COUNTRY MAYBE IN OTHER COUNTRIES AS WELL OF WHAT’S CALLED “DENIALISM” WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY IGNORING WHAT THE SCIENCE TELLS US AND THEN BELIEVING ESSENTIALLY HEARSAY OR WHAT COMING FROM NON-CREDIBLE SOURCES. AND SO IT’S REALLY IMPORTANT THAT WE FOCUS ON THE SCIENCE AND THE SCIENCE BEHIND THAT SCIENCE IN THE FUTURE AND SO FORTH IN THE FUTURE. RONNIE GREEN: I WINKED AT OUR PROVOST, WHO’S SITTING HERE. WHEN YOU SAID THAT, BECAUSE SUSAN FRITZ THE PROVOST OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA SYSTEM. WE ARE GLAD SUSAN IS WITH US TODAY. GAVE ME THIS BOOK FOUR YEARS AGO. WHEN I ARRIVED ON CAMPUS. THE TITLE OF IT IS “DENIALISM” AND IT GOES THROUGH A SERIES OF CASE STUDIES USING A WHOLE VARIETY OF THINGS. WHERE THERE IS A SOCIETAL MOVE TO DENY THE SCIENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VARIOUS THINGS AND I ACTUALLY CLIMATE SCIENCE WAS ONE OF THOSE EXAMPLES. AMONGST BIOTECH AND A NUMBER OF OTHER THINGS AS WELL. THIS ONE’S A FUN QUESTIONS, I JUST WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU SAY AS A FORMER SKEPTIC MYSELF, THIS IS FROM THE AUDIENCE, HAVE ANY OF YOU BEEN A LATE BELIEVER THAT HUMANS ARE CAUSING CLIMATE CHANGE AND IF SO, WHAT MADE YOU CHANGE YOUR MIND? I THINK I KNOW THAT ANSWER TO THAT BUT, I JUST THOUGHT I WOULD ASK IT ANY WAY. DON WIHITE: I WAS NOT. BOB OGLESBY: I GOT INTERESTED IN THE STUDY OF CLIMATE IN THE FIRST PLACE BECAUSE I BECAME FASCINATED BETWEEN THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE ADVENT OF HUMAN AGRICULTURE IN WHAT HE NOW THINK OF AS THE MIDDLE EAST, AND THE IMPACT THAT THAT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY MAY HAVE HAD ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF DESERTIFICATION IN THAT REGION.. SO, I GUESS, NO CLINT ROWE: MY BACKGROUND IS AT LOOKING AT LINKS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND CHANGES IN THE LAND VEGETATION AND HOW IT AFFECTS POPULATION AND SO FORTH. SO, NO. DEB BATHKE: I GUESS MY QUESTION IS, WHAT DO YOU CONSIDER A LATE COMER, BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT ME COMPARED TO THESE GUYS I MIGHT BE. I MIGHT BE A LATE COMERRONNIE GREEN: THEY ARE CREATIVE PEOPLE. DEB BATHKE: I SAID THAT WITH LOVE AND RESPECT. RONNIE GREEN: WE WILL BRING OUR QUESTIONS TO A CLOSE WITH THIS THIS KIND OF THREAD OF QUESTIONS SO THERE HAS BEEN LOT OF INTEREST IN THE REPORT AND A LOT OF QUESTIONS CAME FORWARD THAT HAD TO DO WITH, SPECIFICALLY AGRICULTURE’S RESPONSE TO DEALING WITH THIS ISSUE. SO, HOW CAN AGRICULTURE RESPOND, HOW CAN THE AGRICULTURAL COMMUNITY, INCLUDING FARMERS AND RANCHERS RESPOND TO THIS AND THERE ARE TWO QUESTIONS HERE. ONE IS MORE GENERAL THAT SAYS HOW QUICKLY AND SLOWLY WILL PLANTS AND ANIMALS, AND WITH ANIMALS I COULD INCLUDE WILDLIFE AS WELL AS DOMESTIC ANIMALS, ADAPT TO PROJECTED CHANGES PERCENTAGE THAT MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO ADAPT. SO THAT’S A BROADER QUESTION. AND THEN SECONDLY, I THINK, DR. WILHITE, YOU MENTIONED UNL EXTENSION HOW FAST CAN THE FARMING SECTOR EXPECT TO GET ADVICE FROM UNL EXTENSION ON IDEAS TO FARM SMART, OR CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE IS NOW QUITE A TOPIC AMONGST OUR EFFORTS. DON WILHITE: ON THE SECOND PART OF THAT QUESTION, EXTENSION IS LAUNCHING THIS ACTION PROGRAM NOW AND TRYING TO BRING TOGETHER THE FACULTY RESOURCES TO ADDRESS THIS. AS I POINTED OUT, BECAUSE I HAVE BEEN INVOLVED WITH THIS PROCESS SOMEWHAT IT’S IMPORTANT THAT WE EDUCATE THE EDUCATORS BECAUSE THE MESSAGE ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE’VE LEARNING IN LOOKING AT WHO DO PEOPLE OUT THERE BELIEVE EXTENSION EDUCATORS RANK VERY HIGH ON THAT LIST. SO THEY ARE GOOD SOURCE OF INFORMATION WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY ARE GIVING OUT THE RIGHT, THE CORRECT INFORMATION, THE CORRECT ADVISE. SO ALL OF THAT IS PART OF WHAT WE NEED TO WORK ON WITHIN THE EXTENSION SYSTEM. I THINK THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS YOU ARE GOING TO SEE THE ACTIVITY DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY. BUT ONCE AGAIN, AS IT’S BEEN POINTED OUT EARLIER THIS IS A VERY INNER DISCIPLINARY ISSUE AND SO WE NEED INVOLVE MANY SCIENTISTS WITHIN THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA MANY WITH I.A.N.R. AND BEYOND I.A.N.R. IN THIS PROCESS HOW PEOPLE LEARN HOW WE SHOULD BE DECIMANATING INFORMATION. HOW WE SHOULD PACKAGE THAT INFORMATION. IN ORDER TO CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR. RONNIE GREEN: ANY OTHER COMMENTS? CLINT ROWE: IN TERMS OF ADAPTATION OF BOTH PLANTS AND ANIMALS, IT’S PROBABLY NOT FAST ENOUGH IS THE BOTTOM LINE. AND IF THERE IS EVEN ADAPTATION SPACE AVAILABLE TO CERTAIN ECOSYSTEMS. FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOUR’E A LITTLE RODANT LIVING IN THE HIGH ALPINE ENVIRONMENT AND THE CLIMATE WARMS UP, AND YOU KEEP MOVING UP THE MOUNTAIN, THERE IS A TOP TO THAT MOUNTAIN, AND YOU CAN’T GO ANY HIGHER. SO YOUR ECOSYSTEM SPACE DISAPPEARS, AND SO DO YOU. SO, THAT’S A HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC THING. OF COURSE ANIMALS CAN MOVE IF THEY HAVE A PATHWAY TO MOVE THROUGH, WITHOUT GETTING RUN OVER ON THE INTERSTATE OR WHATEVER… THEY CAN MOVE, BUT PLANTS IT TAKES LONG TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR TREES SPECIES TO MOVE THROUGH SPACE. BOB OGLESBY: AND I’LL LEAVE ONE FINAL, MORE BROADER THOUGHT ON THAT, THE GEOLOGIC RECORD OF COURSE TELLS US THAT THAT THE EARTH’S CLIMATE HAS UNDER GONE LARGE CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PAST. WE ARE TALKING GENERALLY MILLIONS, OR TENS OF MILLIONS OF YEAR AGO. WE ALSO KNOW THIS GEOLOGICAL RECORD TELLS US THAT THE EARTH HAS UNDERGONE MASS EXTINCTION WHERE MANY IF NOT MOST OF THE PLANT AND ANIMAL SPECIES EXISTING AT THAT TIME WENT EXTINCT. GUESS WHAT? THE TWO COINCIDE. THE BIG CLIMATE CHANGES THAT THE EARTH HAS UNDERGONE IN THE PAST ARE WHEN THE BIG MASS EXTINCTIONS HAVE TAKEN PLACE. DON WILHITE: I MIGHT POINT YOU TO THE REPORT. THERE ARE THREE COMMENTARIES FOCUSED ON ECOSYSTEMS. SO I WOULD POINT YOU TO THOSE THREE COMMENTARIES. AND THE PERPECTIVES OF THREE ECOSYSTEM SCIENTISTS. ON THIS PARTICULAR ISSUE. RONNIE GREEN: SO WE HAVE THREE THINGS TO DO WITH YOU BEFORE YOU LEAVE, SO WE BEG YOUR PATIENCE FOR A JUST A FEW MINUTES. THIS FIRST IS I WOULD LIKE TO ASK ANYONE IN THE AUDIENCE WHO WAS A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE REPORT COMMENTARY WRITER, CO-AUTHOR, SPECIALIST THAT WAS DRAWN UPON FROM THE UNIVERSITY. SO IF YOU ARE IN THE AUDIENCE AND YOU WERE A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE REPORT, WOULD YOU PLEASE STAND. I KNOW THERE IS SOME HERE, BECAUSE I SAW THEM.SECONDLY, WE HAVE A TRADITION IN THE HEUERMANN LECTURES THAT WE STARTED FOUR YEARS AGO, THREE YEARS AGO NOW, THAT EACH LECTURER RECEIVES A MEMENTO FROM THE UNIVERSITY TO REMEMBER THEIR HEUERMANN LECTURE. AND IT’S A COMMISSIONED MEDAL THAT WE PROVIDE THAT HAS A VERY NICE PICTURE ON IT RELATED TO THE TREE OF LIFE. ASSOCIATED TO WHAT WE DO IN AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES. SO WE HAVE MEDALS FOR ALL FOUR OF OUR PARTICIPANTS TODAY TO REMEMBER THEIR TIME HERE AS A HEUERMANN LECTURER. SO PLEASE JOIN ME IN APPLAUDING DON, CLINT, BOB AND DEB.THE LECTURERS ARE ALL ARCHIVED AND TODAY’S LECTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT 7:00 P.M. TONIGHT. THERE WERE GROUPS THAT REQUESTED IT WHO WERE HAVING WATCH SESSIONS TONIGHT WITH THE LECTURE SO IT WILL BE UP ON THE WEB AT 7 P.M. THIS EVENING IN IT’S FULL LENGTH. I WOULD DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT LECTURE. WHICH WILL BE ON NOVEMBER THE 6TH IT WILL ALSO BE IN THIS VENUE. IT IS AT THE SAME TIME, 3:30 IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A PANEL DISCUSSION LECTURE THAT DEALS WITH COMMUNICATING ABOUT AGRICULTURE IN THE 21ST CENTURY. DEALS WITH SOME OF THE ISSUES WE TALKED ABOUT TODAY ABOUT SCIENCE, APPLICATIONS OF SCIENCE, AND CONTROVERSIES AROUND SOME OF THOSE APPLICATIONS OF SCIENCE RELATED TO AGRICULTURE IT WILL BE MODERATED BY AND LEAD BY ORION SAMUELSON MR. SAMUELSON IS A LONG-TIME LEGEND RADIO BROADCASTER FROM CHICAGO – WGN. HE’S THOUGHT OF AS THE VOICE OF AGRICULTURE. IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES. HE WILL MODERATE THE PANEL. IT WILL INCLUDE BARB GLENN WHO WAS PREVIOUSLY WITH CROPLIFE AMERICA, BEFORE THAT WAS WITH THE BIO-ORGANIZATION IN WASHINGTON JUST RECENTLY BECAME THE CEO OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF STATE DIRECTORS OF AGRICULTURE IN THE U.S. IT ALSO WILL INCLUDE MARCY TESSMANN. MARCY IS THE PRESIDENT OF CHARLESTON-ORWIG. WHICH IS ONE OF THE LARGEST ARGRICULTURAL MEDIA ORGANIZATIONS IN THE WORLD LOCATED IN MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN KEVIN MURPHY FROM A GROUP CALLED FOOD CHAINS COMMUNICATION, INC THAT DEALS WITH THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR IN PARTICULAR A LOT OF ISSUES AROUND THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR. AND I COULDN’T RESIST THIS ONE SO I’M GOING TO SIT ON THE PANEL AS WELL. AND PRODE THEM ALONG THE WAY. SO PUT THAT ON YOUR CALENDAR. NOVEMBER THE 6TH. IN THIS VENUE AT 3:30 P.M. IN THE AFTERNOON. IN JANUARY WE WILL HAVE ALISON VAN EENENNAAM FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA – DAVIS COMING TO GIVE THE LECTURE. ON ANIMAL BIOTECHNOLOGY. ALL OF THE ISSUES AROUND ANIMAL BIOTECHNOLOGY. ALISON WILL RECEIVE THE COUNCIL OF AG SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGIES NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS AWARD. IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WORLD FOOD PRIZE IN DES MOINES. AND I CAN ASSURE YOU SHE IS A COMPELLING AND EXCITING SPEAKER THAT WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO HAVING HEAR IN EARLY JANUARY. SO I WELCOME YOU TO THOSE LECTURES IN THE FUTURE. PLEASE JOIN ME AGAIN IN THANKING THE PANEL. REMEMBER THE REPORT COPIES ARE AVAILABLE ON YOUR WAY OUT.

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