How Subnautica Proved Humans Are Going Extinct! | The SCIENCE!… of Subnautica Below Zero

Dear Unknown Worlds. Hi! It’s me! Austin! You have made a Subnautica expansion (or you’re making one, it’s still in early access, and it SHOWS sometimes…) BUT! That’s not what this is about. This is about ME finally having an excuse to make a video on Subnautica, which I WANTED to do for ages, but COULDN’T because I’m dumb and couldn’t come up with an idea. BUT NOW I HAVE ONE, and it’s gonna be awesome it’s gonna be terrifying on a cosmic An Existential level (oh boy here we go) AND it’s gonna have spoilers for the first Subnautica game and the new expansion so if you’re scared by spoilers more than you are the inevitability of death and Extinction, you can click away in five four three two one Let’s Go Honestly, there’s a lot of cool things hiding in Subnautica but when Subnautica was making the rounds on YouTube my kid was just about 1 year old and so like honestly it’s amazing I was able to get any videos done during that time at all Let alone come up with something cool about one of the most unique small ish Titles to remain relevant for as long as it did want to know why I was constantly Shrieking for my first year and a half on the game theorists? It’s because I was only able to stay awake and make videos by downing enough coffee to drown a small European nation! *dying* Where was I- OH RIGHT! Okay, but no subnautica. We’re back on track. Subnautica on its surface is a game about swimming in an Extraterrestrial ocean filled with alien fish if you go one layer deeper it’s a game about overcoming a biological epidemic that wiped out an entire species before you if you go even deeper it’s a game about correcting a millennia-long Injustice imposed on an innocent sentient species by freeing their children! if there’s something wrong with your brain like mine and you know that the story of subnautica is one about why we Humans are all secretly doomed to extinction, (oh boy he’s going at it) our destiny to fade into obscurity In the cosmos ignored by other sentient species, that will arise Millions of years after our Sun has exploded and erased all evidence of our planet from the cosmic map and since it’s part of my mission to spread whatever is wrong with my brain among the masses so that the abnormal things that I Think about become so prevalent as to be the new normal So that the doctors will stop threatening to commit me and instead I can put them in the psych ward THIS is what we’re talking about today how subnautica DOOMED humanity and it all starts with one simple multiplication problem. R star times F of P times n of e times F of one times F of I times F of C times. L who could have predicted that you would have learned everything you needed to know to be able to Calculate the end of human civilization by the time you’re in sixth grade Welcome to the wonderful world of Drake equations and Fermi paradoxes walk with me down the dark path Of infinity Okay, this formula, this long string of multiplication is what’s known as the Drake Equation and it’s our stepping stone into understanding the wider world of well… our galaxy, the wider galaxy, but Whatever this equation was written by. Dr. Frank Drake in 1961 as a way of quantifying and Informing the conversation about the search for extraterrestrial intelligence And while the math in the equation is very simple The methods used to estimate the numbers in it are not but we’ll forego that for now R star is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy f of P is a fraction of those that have planets and of E is the average number of planets that can potentially support life for a star that actually has the planets F of 1 is the fraction of those planets that actually develop life at all F of I is the fraction of those that actually develop Intelligent life F of C is a percentage of those that develop Technology that releases signals of their existence into space and L is the length of time for which those civilizations Release those signals into space and all of these return of value n which represents the number of civilizations That should exist in our galaxy that we should be able to communicate with drakes initial variables in 1961 returned a value of 20 meaning that there should be when we look up into the sky evidence of about 20 civilizations that we should be able to communicate with or At least receive signals from this gets a little bit more complicated as you consider that the speed of light is a pretty Significant speed limit when you’re talking about an entire galaxy But that might become important later on modern estimates are actually quite a bit Larger for a number of reasons as we’ve learned that planets are actually a lot more Common and our communication estimates have been a lot more truncated giving us anywhere from Okay Giving us anywhere from a hundred and fifty three to six thousand three hundred possible visible Civilizations in our galaxy and at this point you’re like, but Austin Where the hell is everybody then? Congratulations, you’re asking exact question Enrico Fermi did in 1950 if you’re part of the other group of people That’s like but Austin, what does this have to do with subnautica? We are about to get there I promise but I gotta explain the Fermi paradox first Thankfully, it’s a very simple concept and it’s very easily explained by the question Fermi asked where is everybody Where the f*ck is everybody? So this paradox the idea of if there’s life where the hell is it? does pretty date the Drake Equation but Unfortunately, the Drake Equation only reinforces the idea that there’s something wrong with how we look at the universe and the origins of life We’ve been actively trying to communicate since the 70s by sending out signals like the outer SIBO message But we’ve been broadcasting our butts for nearly 200 years which while light travels fast No that fast and our signals have only got a few millimeters into the Galactic map But every year they go that much further and the fact of the matter. Is that any civilization Predating us by any major amount should have left some evidence behind yet They haven’t so there’s something we’re not Accounting for when we’re looking for life out there in the rest of the galaxy but back to subnautica Because this is a world filled with life We don’t have to worry about Fermi paradox is because the paradox isn’t a paradox life exists in these worlds Not just life, but intelligent life There’s the precursors the primordial intelligent race that left behind relics and there’s the sea emperor Leviathan an intelligent Giant whale thing. So no Fermi paradox. No problem right wrong You are so dang wrong. It ain’t even funny And in fact the existence of not just complex multicellular life and animals on this planet isn’t just a major issue with the Fermi paradox It combined with the existence of not one but two Intelligent species only one of which formed a technologically advanced spacefaring and brain downloading culture. Oh my god humanity is Absolutely doomed this is due to any number of reasons But the biggest one is that they establish multiple times in Subnautica that intelligent extraterrestrial life capable of communication is mostly undiscovered and life itself is generally pretty rare this if anything is a validation of the Fermi paradox because as calculated by the most conservative solutions of the Drake Equation There should be like at least tens more civilizations and millions more planets with complex life So to summarize where the heck is everybody and in order to answer that question we have to loop in one more principle for the search of extraterrestrial life great Filters honestly, if you’re a fan of this show, then you’re probably a fan of Kurtz good to carets Gazette Just put it on screen, Tonya anyway You’re probably a fan of the show in a nutshell like I am but a bears repeating for those of you who aren’t familiar Anyway, because it’s super important to our conclusions here I learned about the Fermi paradox before I learned about great filters because the concept of great filters is relatively new It was originally coined by economist Robin Hanson in 1996 and elaborated on by him in 1998 great filters are a proposed solution to the Fermi paradox And it goes something kind of like this So in order for life to exist a universe has to be born the laws of physics have to form exactly the way they are Now the right star system with habitable planets has to form reproductive molecules like RNA And DNA have to form than single-cell life than sexual reproduction. Multi cell life bigger multi cell life tool using animals Big brains have to happen then maybe we get to someplace like where humans are now then a smart tool using species has to survive long enough to populate their system Then the galaxy each of these steps listed here which is a short list by the way is a potential grape filter a place where life May not find a way along the way if you take a Relatively liberal estimate that it’s guaranteed that a universe and physics will form and everything else is a coin flip The end result is that surviving a great filter and becoming a spacefaring species is only point one percent this explanation is elegant because it supposes that the reason we don’t see life happen more is because there’s some barriers along the way that almost statistically impossible For life to form as we would expect it to whether it’s that there are so few types of molecules that can store and reproduce Information or that gamma-ray bursts are microwaving. Yes I know they’re not really microwaves shut up life to death or well other terrible things happen There’s any number of steps up until where we are now that could be making it much more difficult for life to gain intelligence and Technology a simple explanation may be that honestly Intelligence is overrated from a day-to-day life in the jungle perspective intelligence is honestly more of a burden than a boon Sure, we talk about how great it is now, but we’ve already conquered our planet look at my cat My cat does not need intelligence. Look how happy she is. Look at Trina’s dumb stupid fuzzy widdle happy face our kids come out dumb and Helpless and loud not exactly prime survival stuff in the cutthroat world of the wild but that’s where subnautica comes in because right now among some of you an Existential dread might be forming. What if what if it’s possible that we haven’t passed our great filter yet? What if intelligence is really common? but the reason the reason we don’t see more evidence of civilizations out there is because intelligence is really mundane, but it also Naturally destroys itself if we’re alone in the galaxy It becomes increasingly unlikely that we have yet to pass our great filter but if say we start running into sparse but still existent life-forms on planets like four five or six be Teeming with simple life a near extinct intelligent species and ancient relics of a technologically advanced definitely extinct race But we haven’t resolved the Fermi paradox. It means that our great filter is still yet to come It is before us in the subnautica universe. There’s actually an explanation Microbes the khara bacterium obliterated the precursors and many other forms of life Remember my tuberculosis episode from a few weeks ago. Remember the Drug-resistant strains. Remember the most deadly disease on earth HIV malaria Global climate change nuclear weapons. There’s a bajillion Potential great filters before us so running into extinct life in a galaxy where life is still kinda rare? that means that we still have our greatest challenge to our existence to overcome or our extinction is guaranteed because of life is this common and getting to this place is this likely it means according to again, our *literal* estimates Humanity is best-case looking at a point one chance of surviving past the next great hurdle I do not like those odds The best-case scenario is that the Fermi paradox is just wrong that there’s a crap-ton of life out there and civilizations But we just can’t see them a mass effect solution and he’ll even mass effect had a great filter In fact, that game is a perfect example reapers Obliterating generations of species over and over and over it’s artificial, but it’s still a filter and hell Maybe our filter is AI that wants to kill us. Who knows? That’s the great thing about living in our universe gamma-ray bursts traveling at the speed of light the 30 to 40 Invisible near-earth asteroids that we know are somewhere we don’t know the size or exactly where they are nukes robots there’s bajillions of things that could end our existence like that and it turns out discovering something as Amazing as life on another planet may in fact be terrible Terrible news life is impermanent dying is easy and that’s the bedtime story I tell my child every night before putting them down to bed Sleep tight sincerely, Austin

100 thoughts on “How Subnautica Proved Humans Are Going Extinct! | The SCIENCE!… of Subnautica Below Zero

  1. There is also the possibility that we are just one of the first significantly intelligent life to have developed. Because in the grand scheme of things we are still pretty early in our universes timeline. I mean it took several billion years for complex life to develop. There is also the possibility that any kind of communication from other planets might have missed us or is to complex for our technology to even detect it.

  2. I love questioning my existance on a cosmic level because I play a game and have an interest in said game

  3. oh… oh no……… we're alone and/or we're doomed. I can't believe you made me understand these complex scientific ideas basically

    also I totally agree with the idea of "intelligence is overrated." we're so caught up with trying to find life that looks like ours that we don't sit and see how much more common it is to find "less" intelligent life like bacteria all the way to lions and whales.

  4. How do you give meaning to your life beyond the usual "just have a nice time and make people happy" sunshine thing? How do you make this life feel worth living when all I can see is a monotonous job just to maintain a living standard and maybe do hobbies in my spare time until I can't or I die?

  5. now… there's another possibility…
    that makes the great filter behind us, or ahead of us, just not seeable anymore
    there's life, nowhere else
    having no other life forms anywhere else disproves the drake equation
    making the fermi paradox redundant, and the filter behind us
    its a 50-50 chance where the filter will be, but its a chance
    or… it may prove that there is no great filter at all, instead, a powerful, regular filter that a species with our brains has, could easily overcome, or, has already

  6. I have my own weird thought about alien life; what if there was another earth that is exactly like our earth with humans animals etc, but is farther away than anything we could even imagine, BUT the humans’ Society was Infinitely better than ours as in there wasn’t racism, sexism global warming things like that.

  7. Yo the ice worm has been partially added however it shows it moving under the ice and it is fast can you figure out the science behind the ice worm and how hot it's tusk thing would need to be to go that fast

  8. No that's pretty accurate, dude, it has a lot of probable things, correct scientific manipulatives, even a persuasion that it's true, but I don't that the AI or Asteriods thing could be true, we've only got ten years till planet becomes uninhabitable right now.

  9. I'm a little confused at this theory.
    In Subnautica, it's established that there are several private space exploration units, most notably Alterra, and whatever Mongolia has set up. It's also established that the Aurora was on a mission to build a warp gate. This points out two things: 1. Earth is very advanced in it's space travel. 2. There are obviously a lot of people still left on earth running the super-advanced space travel industry.
    Therefore, even if there is Great filter at play in Subnautica, it looks like humans have gotten past it.

  10. There is actually one thing I think the equation doesn't take into account, what if we are bound to change our method of transmission? It may actually come to be that things like radio fall out of use as grossly inefficient and in their place more advanced, but less detectable, transmission methods may be discovered. This would mean that we may only have a narrow window to detect EM transmissions before they are replaced with an undetectable transmission form.

    Just using our own tech, take transmission using a laser in place of a radio signal. The radio signal very quickly loses power over distance since it transmits in the spherical form, while a laser only suffers the much more modest degradation of diffusion so it might be deemed at some point that most communications should go via laser. But if you do you laser, not only are the odds of being in a laser's path are incredibly low, the vast majority of the time the signal would hit a receiver and never go any further. Our odds of finding such a civilization using such a communication, even if they were right next door cosmically speaking are near 0.

    Going even further what if aliens are blocking us from detecting them? What if we're in a planetary nature preserve and they have deliberately shielded us from outside influences? This is far more difficult I think but not impossible. In the end it amounts to the same problem though, that there may be all kinds of transmissions all around us, we just can't detect them.

  11. I very very much question the logic used in this video. And ya never got back to the drake equation. Stop drinking so much coffee.

  12. making the abnormal normal so you can get revenge upon those who try to put you in a psyche ward is the best reason I've ever heard for spreading ideas and i LOVE IT!

  13. there's also always that small chance that we don't see anyone else because we're relatively early on and other intelligent species just haven't evolved and advanced enough to the point that we could interact with them yet. like evolution takes a very long time and maybe we were lucky in getting a head start on everyone else in our more relatively local group

  14. Perhaps humans are the first Milky Way species to practice radio communication and spacefaring; perhaps that is the reason we haven't communicated with anyone yet.
    If that's the case, then I REALLY hope any other possible Milky Way non-human species out there are strong enough to survive and achieve communication.

  15. Austin, of course humans are doomed to fade from existence. There are only two paths forward in nature: extinction or evolution. Both of them lead a species to fade from existence. It's merely a question of when and how. That question still remains unanswered, and will remain unanswered until fewer than a dozen non-related individuals remain in the world.

    At which point, there wouldn't be much reason for any species to continue existing on Earth. We're tough and clever creatures, had to be to make it this far. If we're going down by our own hand, we're taking Earth's ecosystem with us. But, will global warming be our end? unlikely. We survived an episode of global warming before after all.

  16. I am a fan of the idea that there are actually multiple civilizations that are aware of our existence, but they have a vested interest in us not being aware of them. The most benign possibility is that there is extreme value in the ideas that come from a completely separate culture.

  17. Pausing the video just after the intro, at 3 minutes. I am guessing this has to do with great filters. Time to play and see if I was right.

  18. Im going to point this out, an equation is only as accurate (and useful) as its least correct variable. The Drake equation has 4 variables we dont know or dont have any accurate numbers for those. So its very, very inaccurate

  19. So evolving life is like flipping a coin, you have a 50% chance of living trough every filter and so far we've been damn lucky.

  20. two possibilities
    first: we will still go through the great filter that may result in the end of our race or its survival;

    second: we have already passed it and we are alone or the few intelligent life forms that survived they are way beyond our reach.

  21. Yo, you made a big math error there my boi. Its maybe a 50/50 chance per filter. If there are 8 filters and you've already passed 7, then you have a 50% chance of surviving the next one.

  22. Is it possible those odd blips from space we recieve once in a blue moon are frequencies and codes we don't know how to decipher yet?

  23. They've already been here… a long time ago. The angels came down to Earth and gave us the knowledge of them, created in their image. Now, thousands of years later… we're still here as a mere experiment, deigned and forged by the Fallen, doomed to repeat the mistakes they once did to decieve God… or was it god?

    It all began with Orion. It will end by our hand. It has laready started, and our very own, coded nature is why it cannot be stopped.

  24. WAIT WAIT wait
    dude your wrong
    why do you think in the end of subnautica you travel back home?
    namely earth
    and how many aroura's have been sent to the planet?
    an aroura can carry 1 millio people
    or scientists and explorers so what is with the theory

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