Can we forecast a weather disaster—years before it happens?


iHESP will establish Texas A&M
University as the leader in climate modeling. The new knowledge generated
from this program will allow decision makers, policy makers the ability to make
informed decisions. What we’re doing is trying to look at what is the weather
going to look like in the next season, next year, decades from now. The
climate model we have right now has coarse resolution on the order of 100
kilometers or more. So at that kind of resolution we cannot resolve climate
extremes like hurricanes and extreme rainfalls. So what we want to do within the iHESP project is actually increase model
resolution down to 10 kilometers or less and we can make a better simulation and
make a more accurate simulation of this phenomenon predicting their changes into
the future. Getting more precise information: when the storm is going to
intensify and how much rainfall it is going to produce and how much wind
damage it is going to generate. The research scientists leading this program will be
recognized as thought leaders in their field, both at the national and
international level, for both Earth system and climate modeling, and the program will produce the next generation of climate scientists. Right now we’re one of the
only few groups in the whole world taking this challenge moving the climate model
resolution down to that kind of a spatial scale. The datasets we generate
are going to be unprecedented. The climate issue is really a global issue and some
of the countries may not be able to produce this kind of datasets but
they’re in the urgent need to understand the impact of the climate in their
region so being able to provide these datasets to the entire community, to the
entire world it’s really going to be very beneficial
to our understanding of the urgency of the climate change.

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